Why Trump sent Witkoff to Moscow and Kellogg to Kyiv - Political analyst explains

Ceasefire efforts

"According to various reports, Witkoff is expected to be in Moscow and Kellogg in Kyiv almost simultaneously. This most likely means there is an intention to reach as much of an agreement as possible, if it works out. For now, in my opinion, it’s extremely unlikely. To agree that both sides would simultaneously announce a ceasefire – that’s an idealistic scenario, I would say," Fesenko noted.

He explained that Washington might also try to negotiate an airspace ceasefire and further talks on a truce. That option seems slightly more realistic. However, at this stage, there are no prerequisites for Russia to agree to such a scenario.

"My main counterargument as to why this is definitely not the end: if Putin agrees at least to a ceasefire under this ultimatum that ends on August 8, he would essentially fulfill Trump’s ultimatum. And then Trump is the winner, and Putin is the loser," the political analyst emphasized.

At the same time, he noted that the parties might also agree to hold negotiations in Istanbul specifically on a ceasefire – how it could be implemented, when, and under what conditions.

Bilateral relations

Fesenko also suggested that Witkoff might discuss the launch of a separate negotiation track on bilateral relations during his visit to Moscow, particularly concerning nuclear de-escalation.

At the same time, Washington and Moscow could initiate official talks on a treaty related to the limitation of strategic offensive arms. This refers to nuclear weapons and all their delivery systems.

"This treaty is currently suspended by Russia, but its formal expiration date is next year. So it's necessary to start negotiations. In principle, this could also be seen as a US response — as if to say, 'We’re starting negotiations, and in parallel, we’ll also talk about Ukraine'," Fesenko stated.

Leaders' meeting

The political analyst suggests that American officials in Moscow and Kyiv might also be discussing the possibility of a meeting at the leadership level. Ukraine has long supported such an initiative.

"This could also be the subject of agreements or attempts to reach an agreement for such a meeting to take place. If not now, then perhaps a bit later. As they say in Russia, after preliminary expert work. So there will definitely be a surge in negotiations, but it looks more like a prelude to active talks that will take place later in the fall," Fesenko noted.

On August 4, RBC-Ukraine's sources reported that US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg may visit Ukraine. Exact dates have not yet been announced.

Meanwhile, in the early hours of August 4, US President Donald Trump stated that his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would visit Moscow this week.