When will peace talks with Russia become real? Ukrainian expert reveals possible timeline

According to him, Moscow has already started to classify a significant part of economic statistics, including all defense-related spending and a number of other economic indicators. This, the analyst believes, indirectly but clearly signals serious financial problems.

"Putin will have to find a balance between military spending and domestic economic stabilization," the expert emphasized.

He also noted that even some of Russia’s more hawkish sources admit that the capacity to continue the full-scale war is limited. For this reason, the expert believes, Russian leadership views 2025 or the first half of 2026 as critical and is trying to pressure Ukraine before then.

In this context, the analyst stressed that a "window for real negotiations" could open by the end of 2025, but only if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can halt the enemy and internal problems accumulate in Russia.

At the same time, he highlighted the need for international mediation, as without a third party, significant progress in talks is unlikely. The expert pointed to the initiative by US General Keith Kellogg for a trilateral negotiation format as a positive sign.

“Only the US can really pressure Russia. Türkiye is trying but lacks sufficient influence," Fesenko added.

The expert believes White House efforts must become more active since previous contacts between Kyiv and Moscow yielded no results beyond humanitarian discussions.

Ukraine-Russia negotiations

This year, Russia and Ukraine resumed direct talks. So far, two rounds of meetings have taken place. During the latest dialogue, Kyiv and Moscow agreed on prisoner exchanges and the repatriation of 6,000 bodies of fallen soldiers.

As previously stated by the Kremlin, the date for the third round of negotiations will be set after the prisoner exchanges are completed.