Importance of Kostiantynivka and possibility of Russia's rapid advance toward city - Analysis
Photo: The enemy is 7-8 kilometers from Kostiantynivka, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the line (Getty Images)
Russian forces continue to intensify their assaults, attempting to breach the Ukrainian defense at Chasiv Yar and secure a pathway toward Kostiantynivka. The enemy is approximately 7-8 kilometers from their target.
About the possible threat to Kostyantynivka and what determines the enemy's advance towards the city, read in the RBC-Ukraine article below.
The previous day, BILD analyst Julian Röpcke reported on the Russian advance south of Chasiv Yar, characterizing them as a "breakthrough." He stated that Russian troops allegedly managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal on the southern outskirts of the city, which had previously hindered their progress toward Kostiantynivka.
In contrast, Ukrainian military officials assert that there has been no "breakthrough" or "infiltration" into the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), claiming that such enemy infantry "raids" occur regularly. However, Ukrainian troops acknowledge that the situation has become more complicated.
Meanwhile, Mykola Dovbnia, a member of the Druzhkivka City Council, remarked yesterday that the ongoing situation near Kostiantynivka "resembles Soviet war films," characterized by constant rumbling and explosions. As of October 22, he noted that the enemy was already within 7-8 kilometers of the city.
"The road to Chasiv Yar is open only to the military and locals. I think the large quarries there will be able to hold the enemy back a bit between Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar," Dovbnia stated.
The connection between these two cities in the Donetsk region is crucial. If Chasiv Yar falls to occupation, it would open a pathway for the enemy to continue offensive operations, particularly against Kostiantynivka.
Photo: the enemy is 7-8 km from Kostiantynivka (deepstatemap)
Importance of Kostiantynivka and what makes Russia's advance possible
Kostiantynivka remains a potential target for Russians, partly due to its railway hub, noted Oleksii Hetman, a military expert and reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel.
"There is a railway there, and it is essential for the Russians in terms of logistics. They actively utilize the railway. Any army prefers to use rail transport over road transport, as it allows for the swift movement of large quantities of supplies. Even if it is partially destroyed, it can be repaired quickly," Hetman explained.
According to him, the Russian attempts to advance toward Kostiantynivka are pretty expected. However, if the enemy gets closer than their current position, it would also pose a threat of shelling the city with various calibers of mortar systems.
"The importance of Kostiantynivka to them is almost evident. Rockets struck the railway station several months ago as they attempted to destroy critical infrastructure. Moreover, the railway, which we actively use... So, it is predictable that they will try to advance there," Hetman stated.
The expert emphasized that whether the Russians succeed in advancing depends on numerous factors, not just on the Ukrainian Defense Forces but also on the enemy's capabilities, particularly the quantity of personnel and equipment they can mobilize.
"It also depends on us, such as how fresh our troops are and what weaponry they have. If all the components of the war align in our favor, then it will be good," Hetman added.
However, he warned that if Russian forces significantly outmatched Ukrainian forces in artillery, armored vehicles, and personnel, it would be difficult for the AFU to maintain their positions. Preparing and motivating troops alone cannot halt an adversary that holds a significant advantage.
"Sometimes, you hear comments from people like: 'Will we succeed or not?' or 'What can our forces do?' It seems as if people view military actions like a football match... I'm not too fond of such comparisons, but I don't know how else to explain it. If we compare it to sports, can a team of 11 players defeat a team of 111 players?" the expert rhetorically concluded.
For more details about the enemy's intentions and what is happening at the frontline, read RBC-Ukraine's review "Russia advancing in Kursk and Donbas: Is Ukrainian front at risk of collapsing?"
Sources: DeepStateMap, BILD, statements by the Druzhkivka City Council member on Espreso TV, and exclusive comments from military expert and reserve major of the AFU Oleksii Hetman.
