Should Ukraine negotiate in Istanbul without Putin? Expert explains
Photo: Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (RBC-Ukraine collage)
Moscow may use the upcoming meeting in Istanbul as a smokescreen to simulate a peace process. Ukraine must be prepared for a scenario in which the Kremlin sends only technical representatives to the talks and avoid playing by someone else’s rules, stated Oleksandr Musiienko, a member of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces and a military expert, in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine’s YouTube channel.
"Ukraine’s position is clear, consistent, and well understood. It has been stated many times over the past two months. I want to emphasize the two-month timeframe because it highlights how Russia has already been dragging out the process. The idea of a 30-day ceasefire was voiced by the US and Ukraine and supported by European countries at the beginning of March," the expert said.
However, according to him, since then, Russia has used various tactics to delay the negotiations. The Kremlin appears willing to meet and discuss anything, but in reality, it is only creating the illusion of peace talks.
"If you look at the sequence of events, it becomes clear that Putin is using this illusion of negotiations as a smokescreen to make it seem like he supports ending the war. The truth is, he just has his own demands and vision for how it should be done, while continuing to wage war, launch missiles and drones, and kill Ukrainian civilians," Musiienko added.
No talks for the sake of talks
The same scenario, according to Oleksandr Musiienko, is likely to play out in Istanbul. Russian leader Vladimir Putin will not come, but he will send his representatives.
"We need to understand that Putin won’t come. I’m almost 100% convinced he won’t be there. That’s my firm belief. Of course, he’ll send Lavrov, Ushakov, and other figures who have previously been involved in negotiations with the United States," the expert explained.
In his view, Ukraine will also send a delegation to Istanbul, in addition to the President, but the Ukrainian side must maintain a clear and consistent position.
"We must also understand that the mere fact of holding a meeting or negotiations just for the sake of it is not something we need. We need results. We have an agenda, what we insist on and stand for. First, it is a full, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire. Only after that can we move forward with further discussions, agree on technical parameters, hold consultations, and so on,” Musiienko said.
A meeting without major outcomes
At the same time, the expert added that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will not meet with Kremlin representatives, only with Putin, who is unlikely to attend.
"Therefore, I don’t have high expectations for this meeting, because most likely, even if it does take place at the delegation level, it will be technical in nature. We will probably hear demands from the Kremlin regarding a ceasefire. But we should not believe them, even when they talk about a ceasefire. And of course, Russia will voice some of its demands," Musiienko noted.
The illusion of negotiations and Russia's delaying tactics
For Russia, it's critically important to show that a process is underway, that is to focus not on results, but on the process itself, the expert believes.
"Yes, meetings are taking place, and it looks like there’s some kind of negotiation process, right? Supposedly, there are consultations. So if they’re meeting, it seems like we’re one step closer to a ceasefire and then to peace. But in reality, it’s all an illusion. It’s all theater - a tragicomedy staged by the Kremlin," Musiienko said.
He added that what will follow is another phase of delay tactics while Russian forces attempt to advance in the Donetsk region.
"They’ll say, 'We need to consult with Putin or someone else, we have to go back to Moscow. Let’s meet again on the 25th.' Then, on the 25th, they’ll come and say, 'We had a long discussion, but still need to coordinate a few points. Let’s meet again on June 5 or 15.' This process can be dragged out until autumn, while during the summer, they carry out offensive operations in the Donetsk region. The goal is to seize the region, which the Kremlin now sees as a priority for this summer campaign," Musiienko explained.
That’s why, in his view, the only way out of this situation is to increase pressure on the Kremlin so it feels the impact financially and economically. Until then, Putin will continue to deceive the world, manipulate the situation, and create the illusion of a peace process.
Negotiations in Istanbul
Putin proposed holding talks between Ukraine and Russia on May 15 in Istanbul and continuing where they left off in 2022. However, the Russian leader did not agree to a personal meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Türkiye.
Later, Zelenskyy said he wanted to have direct talks with Putin.
And today, Zelenskyy said at a press conference that Ukraine has so far considered only a meeting with Putin. Other formats of negotiations with Russia were not discussed in Türkiye.
