Russia's summer offensive: Expert names main direction and assesses risks for Pavlohrad and Dnipro
Photo: main combat operations will be concentrated in Donetsk region (Ministry of Defence UA)
Russia is concentrating its main forces in the Donetsk region, which indicates an attempt to fully occupy the area as part of the spring-summer campaign. At the same time, there are currently no real signs of an offensive on Pavlohrad or Dnipro, states the serviceman of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, military expert Oleksandr Musiienko, in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"Currently, the nature of the fighting is such that, whereas previously Russia concentrated its forces not on one direction and tried to attack from different positions, with attacks and assaults on the Zaporizhzhia front successfully repelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the Kursk operation, now there is a noticeable increase in the activity of Russian troops specifically in Donetsk," the expert explained.
Hottest direction
According to Musiienko, the hottest front in the Donetsk region is not just the Pokrovsk direction. There is also the Lyman direction, which has seen increased activity in the past few weeks, and fighting continues there as well.
"This could suggest, and I can assume, that the main focus of the Russian military's spring-summer campaign is plans for the complete occupation of the Donetsk region within its administrative-territorial borders. Therefore, both the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions will be in the enemy's sights, in their field of attention. And it is precisely there that they are concentrating their forces," the serviceman predicted.
The Pokrovsk direction is so important for the enemy because the goals there are larger than just military. Russia has an informational and propaganda goal to show that the war could now spread further into the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russian informational campaign
"These actions are aimed at trying to demoralize the Ukrainian people, to sow panic and fear that the Russian machine is coming, and so on. But if we look at the bigger picture, this is not some massive advance or a large onslaught of Russian troops that would indicate the possibility of a strategic or operational success," the expert explained.
He added that the enemy has certain chances for tactical successes, and the situation is complicated. However, there are no signs at the moment that the enemy is preparing to engage in combat operations for Pavlohrad or Dnipro.
"When we talk about these attacks being supported by Russia's informational-psychological operations claiming that they will move towards Dnipro, Pavlohrad, or elsewhere, I urge everyone not to react to this with panic because, as of today, there are no signs that the enemy is ready to move on Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and so on," Musiienko emphasized.
Russian offensive
It was recently reported that Ukrainian troops are preparing for the possibility that Russia may intensify its offensive actions on most fronts by late spring or early summer.
According to sources from RBC-Ukraine, the Ukrainian command suggests that Russia may begin offensive operations along the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Meanwhile, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russia has already begun its offensive in these directions.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Russian spring offensive has already begun. With the arrival of warmer weather, the ground hardens, and the leaves on trees reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones.
For more details on whether Russia is planning a large-scale offensive, read the material by RBC-Ukraine.
