Risks rise with the frost. Could Russia launch missile attack on Ukraine: Expert opinion
Illustrative photo: during freezing temperatures, Russia may launch massive missile attacks on Ukraine (Getty Images)
The risk of a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine is increasing as the frost worsens. At least until the end of winter or the heating season, the enemy may launch one or two large-scale attacks.
This was stated by the interviewed experts in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
As noted by the serviceman of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military expert Oleksandr Musiienko, the frosts have become somewhat harsher, and as a result, Russia is deploying drones almost every night.
"Shaheds are being effectively shot down, but at the same time, the enemy continues to use them. Civilian infrastructure and residential buildings are frequently targeted, as well as energy facilities, gas distribution systems, and others. This, accordingly, poses risks," Musiienko said.
In addition, considering that Russia has taken a certain pause in missile strikes and that about 10 days have passed since the last attack, it may be stockpiling missiles and could take advantage of worsening weather conditions to try to create problems for our energy sector, the expert believes.
"Such risks exist. Accordingly, Russia is preparing ballistic missiles, both of Russian and North Korean production. They are even partially using S-300s, which they are pulling from storage — obsolete Soviet ones. They are also preparing their aircraft and cruise missiles," Musiienko said.
At the same time, he emphasized that the enemy has encountered problems with missile stockpiling, given the trend that it was unable to maintain a high intensity of missile strikes throughout December and January that would have caused serious issues for Ukraine's energy sector, leading to widespread prolonged outages.
"It can be said that Russia has indeed faced problems with accumulating missiles and needs more time to conduct such large-scale attacks," Musiienko noted.
One of the reasons why the enemy was unable to carry out strikes as actively during the winter as it had planned at the start of the heating season is that Ukraine has advanced in conducting so-called "deep strikes" into Russian territory.
"As part of these operations, strikes are being carried out on military airfields — we've seen hits on targets in Engels. In fact, due to successful strikes there, an oil depot that supplies Russian aviation needs was burning for several days," Musiienko explained.
He recalled that there have been several such significant hits, which, of course, diminish Russia's capabilities and resources.
"But it should be understood that Russia could still conduct at least one or two more large-scale attacks before the end of winter and the heating season to create certain problems for us," Musiienko believes.
Aviation expert Valerii Romanenko also agreed in a comment to RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel that the likelihood of missile strikes from Russia is increasing.
"But something has happened with Russia's missile production. So far, the Defense Intelligence hasn't reported on this, though it previously provided regular updates on the number of missiles Russia had. Their missile output was constantly increasing, and suddenly the Russians are launching just 2 or 4 missiles at a time," Romanenko pointed out.
According to him, this refers to ballistic missiles. The expert estimates that Russia was producing 40-50 of these missiles per month.
"So, something has happened with Russian missile production. However, the likelihood of a massive missile strike still exists, even if their missile output has declined. There were also reports that they received some missiles from Iran and transported some launch systems from North Korea. Therefore, the probability of missile strikes increases with the cold weather. But I really hope I'm wrong in this case," the aviation expert concluded.
What is known about the previous massive Russian attack on Ukraine
The last time the enemy used strategic aviation to strike Ukraine was on February 1, 2025. On that occasion, the Russian army deployed 165 drones and missiles of various types.
In particular, the Russian forces targeted a multi-story residential building in Poltava, where a Kh-22 missile destroyed an entire section of the building from the first to the fifth floor. Dozens of people were injured, and 15 others were killed.
The Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions were also targeted that day.
Read more about the consequences of this attack in RBC-Ukraine material.
