Expert assesses how quickly Russia could feel impact of potential Trump pressure

A journalist asked whether Trump could ruin Russia's economy and how long it might take.

"This isn’t about years. If the procedure Trump mentioned, such as declaring an energy emergency and related measures, is implemented, Russia could start feeling the effects within a month or a month and a half. This doesn’t necessarily mean direct sanctions against Russia. It could involve the US pursuing its own interests, and Russia will suffer because it will be hit," the expert explained.

The expert noted that in recent weeks, China has ramped up oil purchases on the global market, but not Russian oil.

"Other countries will do the same when the US introduces additional volumes of oil to the market, which is expected soon. Preparations for this have been underway since it became clear Trump won the election. I believe that in a few weeks, the US will increase its oil market presence. The question is how this aligns with OPEC+, but I think it will be a deliberate action," Reiterovych explained.

The expert added that even if US actions are not directly targeted at Russia, the country will still feel negative consequences.

"Russia will suffer even if it's not the direct target. This primarily impacts its ability to sustain the war. The country is entirely dependent on oil and gas revenues. Even pro-government Russian economists admit they’ll struggle if oil prices drop below $60 per barrel," he said.

Reiterovych also pointed to another potential scenario: prices may remain stable, but buyers could abandon Russian oil entirely.

"For example, they might buy American or other oil. This scenario is even worse for Russia because selling oil is essential to their economy. If no one buys it, they’ll face a crisis due to a lack of storage capacity. Their economy operates on a 'produce and sell' model. And what remains burns, literally - Ukraine knows what to target," he said.

The political scientist emphasized that Ukraine is now at the final stage of certain processes that look unfavorable for Russia.

"Trump may hope Russia will rush to the negotiating table, understanding what lies ahead. But even if there’s an agreement or a cessation of hostilities, the US will continue pushing Russia out of the market because it aligns with national interests. Trump has a goal, and he will pursue it," Reiterovych concluded.

Earlier today, US President Donald Trump stated that he would likely impose new sanctions on Russia if Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Additionally, oil prices recently dropped after Trump threatened tariffs on China, raising fears of trade wars on multiple fronts.