Not like Georgia: Ukraine's intelligence chief lays out how the war might end

Will Ukraine return to Russia?

"As of now, it's impossible. Even if someone wanted to turn toward Russia, it simply wouldn't work. The events we're seeing in our society confirm that once again," he said in the interview.

At the same time, Budanov warned that the future is uncertain, and if Ukrainian society fails to draw serious conclusions, the consequences may be unpleasant.

"The real question is: what comes next? If we don't change and start taking things seriously, a lot of different — and far from pleasant — outcomes are possible," he cautioned.

Budanov used an allegory from his hobby — collecting postage stamps. He pointed out that many of the countries represented in his stamp collection no longer exist on the political map.

"I can show about 20 countries just through stamps — not somewhere far away in Africa — that once existed not far from us and are now gone. Even within Europe, at least seven countries have disappeared in recent decades. So we really need to think seriously about what we’re doing and where we’re going," he emphasized.

Budanov stressed that even in Europe, at least seven states have ceased to exist in recent decades, and added that Ukraine must carefully consider its direction.

"We must clearly define who we are, where we’re headed, and what our role is in this world. If we don’t do it ourselves, someone else will decide for us. It's better to set our own strategic goals and then choose the tools to achieve them. Otherwise, metaphorically speaking, we could end up as just another stamp in someone's collection," said the HUR chief.

Scenarios for Ukraine

Commenting on a recent JP Morgan study analyzing possible scenarios for Ukraine, Budanov emphasized that these are analytical models, not predictions.

"These are scenarios of how events might unfold — that's what's important to remember. They're not dogma, just possible variants," he noted.

Despite JP Morgan's reputation, Budanov urged not to rely solely on expert assessments but to reflect on what Ukrainian society actually wants.

In his opinion, scenarios similar to Belarus or Georgia are unlikely to satisfy Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the so-called "Israelization" or South Korean models appear more appealing, though still open to debate.

"I believe we need to think about how to live on in the conditions we already find ourselves in. And we need to focus on preserving our statehood, our society, our culture, and our nation. The hardest part, of course, will be figuring out how to regain what we've temporarily lost," Budanov concluded.