Why Romania annulled presidential election results and what’s next

The second round of the presidential election was scheduled for Sunday, December 8. Voting had already started at some polling stations abroad.

However, the country's Constitutional Court intervened, unexpectedly annulling the results of the first round of voting on December 6, where the far-right pro-Russian populist Călin Georgescu scored a shocking victory. His opponent was supposed to be the pro-European opposition leader Elena Lasconi, who came in second.

It is noteworthy that on December 2, the same Constitutional Court confirmed the results of the first round of election, but just a few days later, it annulled its own decision.

How Georgescu won with TikTok

The reason for such an unexpected decision is a true snowball of information about how Georgescu achieved his victory.

This week, the court received documents declassified by Romania’s Supreme Council of Defense, which indicated that Georgescu's campaign was the result of manipulations organized from abroad.

A report from Romania’s Intelligence Service contains data about an aggressive advertising campaign that bypassed the country's election laws. The main platform for Georgescu’s campaign was TikTok. As the investigation revealed, TikTok did not label his profile as a political candidate, unlike his competitors, allowing the platform's algorithms to amplify the reach of his videos. Additionally, Romanian media found that the coordination of TikTok video distribution, writing posts, and comments on social media was organized via Telegram.

Georgescu’s TikTok manipulations, as well as the fact of the success of the far-right populist in the election, raised significant concern at the European level. The social network's representatives had to justify themselves at special hearings in the European Parliament.

Moreover, the Romanian Intelligence Service’s report noted that the country had become "a target for Russian hybrid actions, including cyberattacks, intelligence leaks, and sabotage."

Indeed, after his victory in the first round, Georgescu made a series of anti-Ukrainian statements. For example, he promised that if he won, he would halt aid to Ukraine and stop the export of Ukrainian grain through Romanian ports.

Political reason for annuling the results

However, it cannot be ruled out that the Constitutional Court of Romania was guided not only by information about TikTok manipulations and foreign interference but also by political logic.

"In my opinion, the reason is the unsatisfactory polling data. This was already evident last week. And today’s poll, which appeared in the media this morning, showed that Georgescu had a good chance of defeating Lasconi. This could have been the real reason. The next step was to find a reason to formally annul the first round," said political analyst and managing partner of PGR Consulting Group LLC, Ruslan Rokhov, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

According to the Atlas Intel poll, 47% of Romanians planned to vote for Georgescu, while 43% supported his opponent Lasconi. Other polls conducted in recent days gave the far-right populist an even greater advantage.

Rokhov believes there is a significant underestimation of the conservative nature of Romanian society, particularly the fact that a large portion of voters, even those with pro-European views, would not vote for Lasconi simply because she is a woman, which could have had a significant impact on overall voter turnout.

What will happen with the election next

In its decision, the Constitutional Court ordered the government to set a new date for the first round of the election, meaning the electoral process will start from the very beginning, including the registration of candidates. According to Romanian legislation, voting could take place as early as December 22, which further increases the degree of tension.

As Ruslan Rokhov mentioned in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, it should not be a problem for Georgescu to make it to the second round again. However, changes are possible for the other candidate.

"I think this will be a coordinated strategy of the traditional parties to nominate a candidate, possibly a single candidate, to ensure that the one who is guaranteed to beat Georgescu reaches the second round," the expert said. According to him, the far-right candidate's voters have already chosen their favorite, seeing they are numerous and may vote for him again. The outcome of the election will also depend on how Georgescu's network operates, what messages he uses, and how the issue of annulment of the first round will be played out.

The right-wing radical himself has not commented on the court's decision, while his opponent Lasconi sharply condemned it, stating that "the Romanian state has trampled democracy." Her despair is understandable - she secured second place largely unexpectedly, surpassing her nearest rival by just a few thousand votes.

In the first round, one of Georgescu’s key success factors was the fierce infighting between pro-democracy candidates. However, after the "reboot" of the election, there is hope that they will not repeat this mistake. Moreover, on December 1, Romania held a parliamentary election, following which pro-European parties have already agreed to form a coalition.

Sources: reports from Romanian media outlets digi24.ro, news.ro, g4media.ro, and comments by Ruslan Rokhov, political analyst and managing partner of PGR Consulting Group LLC.