Trump's mono-majority: Will Republicans seize full control of US Congress
Donald Trump may gain control of both chambers of the US Congress (photo: Getty Images)
While the whole world was watching the presidential election, the results of which are already known, important elections were also taking place in the US – for both chambers of Congress. And one of them still has an open outcome. Who might gain the majority in the House of Representatives and what will happen if Republicans monopolize all the power, read in the article by RBC-Ukraine.
Contents
- Why the House of Representatives elections are important
- Who is leading in the race for the House of Representatives
Alongside the presidential elections, the US held elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives – the two chambers of Congress. Thanks to the defeat of the Democrats in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, Republicans managed to gain a majority in the Senate, which had previously been controlled by the Democratic Party.
Now, the main battlefield for the Democrats and Republicans is shifting to the House of Representatives. If the Republican Party manages to retain control of the House, newly elected President Donald Trump will gain full control of the government, allowing him to implement all legislative initiatives without obstruction.
The current Speaker of the House of Representatives, staunch Trump supporter Mike Johnson, stated that the Republicans have already prepared an ambitious program for the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency. At the forefront of the Republicans' agenda will be tax cuts, ensuring the security of the southern border, and reducing federal agencies. Trump himself promised that after returning to the White House, he would initiate mass deportations and pay back the enemies, presumably referring to the Democrats.
To quickly and smoothly implement this plan, the Republican Party needs control over both the Senate and the House. If the Democratic Party succeeds in securing a majority in the House, Trump may face the same obstacles that Republicans created for Democratic President Joe Biden over the last two years.
Why the House of Representatives elections are important
Ahead of the American elections, Biden issued a directive to allocate all remaining funds from the package approved by Congress in April this year for military assistance to Ukraine. Therefore, the continuation of support for Ukraine will fall to the newly elected Senate and House of Representatives.
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly criticized Biden’s administration for its support of Ukraine and proposed assisting the Ukrainians on credit. Because of such statements, the EU even expressed concerns that, if Trump returns to the White House, he may completely stop aiding Ukraine in the war with Russia.
"I think Zelenskyy is the greatest salesman in history – every time he comes into the country, he walks away with $60 billion. I will work out peace before I'm even in (the White House - Ed)," Trump said this summer.
Speaker Mike Johnson has announced a program for Trump’s first 100 days (Photo: Getty Images)
Long before the elections, Trump’s policies negatively impacted Ukraine. Last fall, due to his allies in the House of Representatives (the so-called "Trumpists"), the US Congress was unable to quickly allocate new funds for Ukraine’s support, and the consideration of the $60 billion package turned into a six-month standoff.
The delay in American assistance led to a shortage of weapons (primarily artillery shells) in the Ukrainian army, which resulted in setbacks on the frontlines, including the loss of Avdiivka and Russia's renewed attempt to advance in the Kharkiv region.
It is unclear how serious Trump’s past threats were or whether he truly intends to stop supporting Kyiv, but controlling both chambers of Congress would allow him to implement any initiative without obstruction, including the possibility of offering aid to Ukraine on credit, which has support within the Republican Party.
As for domestic policy, in such a scenario, Trump would be able to implement the 100-day program announced by Johnson, including starting large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants and cutting down on the federal government.
However, experts note that this complete control also has another side. Along with full power, the Republicans and Trump would bear full responsibility for the situation in the US, as explained by Oleh Prelovskyi, an associate expert at the Institute of American Studies.
"Now, they won't be able to blame their opponents for anything. Because full power will be in the hands of Trump or his team. Republicans will have the majority, so they will be the first to face criticism from the public," he said.
However, according to Prelovskyi, the balance of power in the US will remain intact despite Republican control over the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
"Although the American Constitution was written in the 18th century, it wasn’t written by foolish people. It was written with the understanding that no matter the outcome, it wouldn’t lead to authoritarianism or a concentration of power. And that’s very important," the expert added.
Who is leading in the race for the House of Representatives
To gain control of the US House of Representatives, a party needs to secure at least 218 seats. Currently, the balance of power stands as follows: 199 seats are already held by the Democrats, and 211 by the Republicans. However, the vote count is still ongoing, and the situation could drastically change, as the final result may depend on just one or a few seats.
It is still unclear which party will win the elections for the US House of Representatives (Photo: Getty Images)
The Republican Party is confident that they will maintain control of the House after successfully "flipping" the Senate. "Republicans are poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate, and House," Speaker Johnson said on Wednesday.
However, the Democratic Party is far from defeat in the House election. After Democrats managed to defeat two Republicans in New York, their path to a majority runs through Arizona, Oregon, and California, said House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
A significant portion of the election results for the House depends on the western states, especially the populous California, where the outcome for a dozen seats is still undecided. The vote count in these states has been delayed, as candidates from both parties are virtually neck and neck in several districts, meaning the final result could depend on a few hundred or thousand votes.
And although neither party currently dominates the path to the majority, the Republican Party’s victory appears more likely than the opposite. Even if the majority in the House remains with the Republicans, their advantage over the Democrats would be just a few seats. However, this would give Trump full power for at least the first two years of his presidency, until the next House elections.
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At this point, it is difficult to predict how the House elections will ultimately end and what decisions Republicans and Trump might make regarding Ukraine if they gain full control. However, one can hope that, under such a scenario, Kyiv will be able to maintain support from Washington, leveraging long-standing good relations with both American parties and the experience of working with Trump during his first term.
