Russian gas transit through Ukraine: How Orbán and Fico put pressure on Kyiv and Brussels

For almost three months, Ukraine and the European Union have been living without Russian gas transit through Ukraine. During this period, neither gas suppliers nor consumers have experienced any particular discomfort.

In the first days of January, there were some price fluctuations in the EU market. Initially, the cost of gas rose slightly, but by the second decade of the month the trend had changed - the price dropped by 10%.

The absence of transit Russian gas, which accounted for up to 5% of total consumption, was compensated for by liquefied natural gas (LNG), not only from the United States. In January, supplies of Russian LNG also increased. Its main importers were France, Spain, and Belgium. And so far, Europe is not risking abandoning Russian LNG. It is not possible to replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper than Russian LNG, because there are no agreements to increase supplies from the United States.

As a result, Russian LNG has not yet been included in the next sanctions package. The EU has no idea what might happen with the sanctions in the future. Politico recently wrote that Trump could change his tactics at any time by offering to ease sanctions in his bilateral talks with Russia. They noted that if this were to happen, the EU would lose a critical lever in its attempts to rein in the Hungarians. They also pointed out that, given the bloc's need for unanimity to impose or renew sanctions, this could pose a problem.

Hungary has so far made concessions when making decisions on sanctions against Russia. In March, Budapest, which had set a number of conditions for the extension of sanctions for another six months, softened its demands and decided not to block the decision. According to unofficial information, Hungary's change of position came under pressure from the United States, which urged Viktor Orbán's government not to undermine the EU's sanctions policy.

Hungary and Slovakia divided roles

So far, Hungary has reduced its public activity to achieve the goal of resuming Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Last year, Budapest raised the issue of transit during almost every meeting with Kyiv. Nowadays, this topic is hardly touched upon, as the focus has shifted to sanctions and other issues related to supporting Ukraine and its integration into the EU.

Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU are currently being delayed because of Hungary. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said that, of course, they would like to open one, possibly two negotiation clusters, but unfortunately, the decision was being blocked by their old friend and once ally, Hungary.

In addition, Budapest is now concerned about the risk of interruptions or even termination of Russian oil transit through Ukraine due to Kyiv's political decision or as a result of shelling. This can be confirmed by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó's comments on the outcome of the talks between the US and Russian presidents. He said that the statement on the rejection of attacks on energy infrastructure was particularly good news for them and that they hoped both warring parties would adhere to it.

Even during the trilateral Ukraine-EU-Hungary meeting held in Brussels on March 17 as part of the meeting of the Council of Energy Ministers of the EU member states, Péter Szijjártó did not focus on gas transit, sources familiar with the discussion told RBC-Ukraine.

The Ukraine-EU-Hungary meeting in Brussels on March 17 (photo: Ministry of Energy)

“We can even say that the Hungarian foreign minister demonstrated a friendly stance,” the source said. The meeting was generally quite calm, he added. However, according to the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, the issues of electricity imports and exports, and oil and gas supplies were discussed.

In turn, Slovakia continues to insist on resuming gas transit through Ukraine. And now Bratislava believes that this could be Ukraine's gratitude in response to continued EU funding. This was recently stated by Slovak President Peter Pellegrini.

At the same time, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has previously threatened to cut off gas and electricity supplies to Ukraine if gas transit is not resumed. It will be difficult for Ukraine to meet the peak in electricity consumption during hot periods without imports. It will also have to buy gas from the EU, given that the transitional stocks in the UGS facilities are minimal. RBC-Ukraine wrote in February about how real the threats are and whether Bratislava's steps will be effective.

“We see that Hungary and Slovakia have now divided their roles. The former is focused on sanctions and Ukraine's European integration, while the latter is pressing for the resumption of gas transit,” said a source in the Ukrainian government.

Increased pipeline gas supplies to EU

Since 2025, Russian natural gas has been coming to Europe mainly through the Turkish Stream. However, there are concerns about the possibility of launching Nord Stream 2. It was reported that the director of JV-2, Matthias Warnig, plans to resume the pipeline's operation with the support of American investors. This is possible if the US and Russia agree to develop cooperation and Washington agrees to ease sanctions against Moscow. Russia has so far denied that Trump and Putin are discussing the topic of the Nord Stream 2.

At the same time, German Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy Robert Habeck has already stated that discussing the resumption of Nord Stream would be absolutely wrong, especially in the context of Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine.

It will take some time to launch Nord Stream 2, one of the two branches of which was damaged in September 2022. The pipeline has not yet been put into operation - Germany suspended its certification in February 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

However, the resumption of transit through Ukraine could theoretically be started much faster - all that is needed is a political agreement and an interoperability agreement between Gazprom and the Ukrainian GTS Operator. But Ukraine is categorically against the resumption of Russian gas transit. Other options, such as the transit of Azerbaijani gas, are not yet feasible, as there are no agreements with Azerbaijan.

In such circumstances, the resumption of gas transit through Ukraine and the launch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and in agreement with the United States, seem unlikely, says Hennadiy Riabtsev, director of the Psychea Center. It is extremely disadvantageous for the United States to increase the volume of Russian gas, especially pipeline gas, in the EU, as this will lower the price of gas and push American fuel out of the market.

“I think this topic will not come up in the negotiations. The US is negotiating primarily about money. If transit resumes, prices on the EU market will fall and American gas will not be needed at all, as it is more expensive. This means that the United States loses all the investments in the infrastructure it has built to supply LNG both to itself and Europe. This is an incredible loss for them,” he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the topic of transit resumption is not yet closed. On March 17, Fico reiterated that Slovakia would continue to push for its resumption, as otherwise, Europe would never be competitive. He wrote in his post that Slovakia will continue its diplomatic offensive to restore this gas transit.

The alternative option of stockpiling gas in Ukrainian UGS facilities, in particular for Hungary and Slovakia, is not yet very popular. In any case, there is no information to confirm that work on its implementation has begun.