Putin’s power play: How Russia delaying peace in Ukraine and forcing Trump’s hand

Contents

• Time on the Kremlin's side
• Ukraine as part of a "grand bargain"
• Trump being pushed to pressure Ukraine

Time on the Kremlin's Side

Long before Trump's conversation with Putin, it was predictable what Trump would say afterward: "Great conversation," "Peace is much closer," "Great success," "The war wouldn't have started if I were in charge," and so on.

Indeed, that's what happened. The official White House statement was also upbeat, with fewer exclamation marks.

However, comparing the expectations Trump and his associates set before the conversation with the actual outcome, the "great success" seems less impressive. Initially, Washington sought Russia's agreement to a 30-day full ceasefire, as discussed in Jeddah, which could have been presented to the American audience as "Trump ended the war."

In reality, Putin agreed (or pretended to agree) to halt strikes on energy infrastructure while attaching numerous favorable conditions for both the US and Ukraine to any further peace settlement, including a complete ceasefire. The main conditions are stopping military aid and halting mobilization.

Essentially, Putin reiterated the same demands he made last week when commenting on the Jeddah talks and hasn't budged since. He allowed Trump to save face by promising to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, enabling the US president to report a "good and productive conversation."

Three weeks ago, when Ukraine attempted to set conditions for Trump (e.g., security guarantees as a condition to end the war), it was met with outrage, accusations of ingratitude, and a subsequent halt in aid.

In Russia's case, no such reaction has occurred. Putin skillfully exploits Trump's urgency in this situation. The White House occupant, who boasts of his business acumen, should understand this. For example, if someone urgently needs money and wants to sell an apartment, while the potential buyer isn't in a hurry, there's a high chance the price will be lowered. It's simple, intuitive logic.

Trump is clearly pressed for time. If he managed to deflect criticisms about his promises to end the war "within 24 hours," another symbolic milestone looms — 100 days of his presidency, by which he needs to showcase real achievements. Renaming bays and mountains won't suffice. Despite his constant bravado, Trump hasn't solved any serious international problems in two months and has only created new ones. The Kremlin undoubtedly sees this and isn't rushing — time is on their side.

Ukraine as part of a "grand bargain"

The aggressor nation hasn't abandoned any of its demands: cessation of Western support for Ukraine, veto on Ukraine's NATO membership, veto on Western contingents, territorial concessions, limitations on the size and capabilities of the Ukrainian army, etc. The Kremlin's report on the conversation even mentioned "eliminating the root causes of the crisis" — essentially the same "denazification" that Moscow can interpret as it wishes.

Alongside these tough demands, Russia offers Trump incentives — "mutually beneficial cooperation in economics and energy" and especially its influence in other troubled regions, including the Middle East. This is likely to interest Trump.

Several Ukrainian sources have indicated that the US views the war in Ukraine as just one element — albeit an important one — of a broader "deal" with Russia covering a wide range of issues, including Iran and the entire Middle East, Arctic cooperation, Russia-China relations, etc. This poses another danger for Ukraine, as it's challenging to compete with Moscow in this regard. Unlike the Kremlin, Kyiv can hardly promise Trump to pacify Iran, the Houthis, or, for example, North Korea.

Trump being pushed to pressure Ukraine

For those who closely followed the negotiation processes around Donbas between 2015 and 2022, Russia's current tactics may seem very familiar. Moscow employs the same strategy: avoiding direct answers to specific proposals, putting forward new demands and conditions, and stalling serious issues by discussing minor technical details. For instance, one round of negotiations in the Trilateral Contact Group was stalled over disputes about the distance from a checkpoint where a shuttle bus with passengers crossing the contact line should turn around.

The announced "technical negotiations" on a ceasefire in the Black Sea provide Russians with ample space for similar maneuvers, allowing them to simulate their commitment to "peaceful resolution perpetually."

Simultaneously, aggressors can continue strengthening their positions "on the ground," launching new offensives, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned. They can also observe the deepening rift between the US and Europe while Trump becomes increasingly entangled in domestic issues as his presidential "honeymoon" ends.

This situation pushes the American president toward swiftly fulfilling Russia's conditions, including halting aid to Ukraine, even before formal peace talks begin. Trump has already sent concerning signals, such as claiming that "many points of the final agreement" have supposedly been agreed upon (presumably with Russia). However, discussions of a "final agreement" haven't even begun with Ukraine.

The next round, whether in a bilateral or trilateral format, is scheduled in Jeddah this Sunday, March 23. There, Trump's team will likely try to shift the ball to Ukraine's or Russia's side or both. Despite optimistic posts on Truth Social, there's no end in sight to these back-and-forths. Perhaps, until Trump takes the ball away from everyone, declares his victory with a clean score, and goes to play golf.