Xi preparing for power shift in Russia as Putin losing China's trust — WSJ
Photo: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Four years of war and isolation have changed Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s role in relations with Beijing—he now increasingly finds himself in the position of the one making requests rather than dictating terms. Meanwhile, China is gradually preparing for Putin’s possible departure, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Partnership where equality no longer exists
As far back as 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin a role model and praised his influence on the world stage. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the situation changed dramatically.
Today, China accounts for nearly 40% of Russia’s foreign trade, while Russia’s share of China’s trade does not exceed 4%. The two countries’ economies have diverged so much that dictator Putin increasingly finds himself in the role of a supplicant rather than an equal partner.
Beijing blocked gas deal
During Putin’s May visit to Beijing, the Russians had hoped to sign an agreement on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. Chinese officials agreed to the project only on the condition that the gas be sold at the domestic Russian price, in other words, they effectively asked the Kremlin to subsidize the construction.
The agreement was never signed.
German businessman Jörg Wuttke says Xi received Putin like an emperor receiving a guest in his castle and sent him home.
Symbolism has also changed
In photos from Putin’s latest visit, Chinese media revealed an image in which the Kremlin leader is looking up at a joint portrait with Xi Jinping. Beijing assured that the staging was not intended to humiliate the Russian leader.
Beijing concerned about Russia’s growing closeness to Pyongyang
Chinese officials are concerned about Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea. Beijing fears that the transfer of Russian technology will strengthen Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and push South Korea and Japan even closer to the United States.
Beijing is strengthening ties with Russian officials and members of the elite who may shape Russia’s course after Putin steps down.
China is building long-term relationships not only with the current Russian leadership but also with those who will influence the country’s policy in the future.
In late June, Beijing unexpectedly and publicly called on Kyiv and Moscow to return to the negotiating table and cease hostilities. At that time, a Chinese diplomat mentioned the suffering of Ukraine’s civilian population for the first time.
However, despite this, it became known in early July that Russia and China had conducted secret military exercises related to the war in Ukraine.
Generals from both countries took part in the exercises, and the Russian Defense Minister personally approved the preparations.
