Why Biden dropped out of election and who is better for Ukraine – Harris or Trump

Contents:

• How and why Biden withdrew from the election
• Why did Biden propose Kamala Harris as a candidate
• The chances of Harris and whether she is better for Ukraine than Trump

How and why Biden withdrew from the election

The day before, a statement was published in which Biden emphasized the achievements of his administration and noted that he was honored to serve the American people.

"And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term," Biden stated.

Thus, Biden listened to his allies and withdrew his candidacy four months before the election. The calls for his withdrawal intensified after the disastrous debates in June, during which the President appeared bewildered compared to Donald Trump. Leaders of the Democratic Party and major donors are convinced that Biden will not be able to defeat his opponent and secure a majority in Congress.

Biden attributed his behavior to fatigue, but subsequent events convinced Democrats otherwise. At the final press conference after the NATO summit, he made a series of gaffes, confusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with Vladimir Putin and Kamala Harris with Trump. Soon after, Trump survived an assassination attempt, and Biden's confidence in his vitality, physical condition, and mental acuity was further undermined by COVID.

He is currently undergoing treatment at a residence in Delaware. According to Politico, amid calls for him to withdraw, he did not rule out such a scenario by the evening of July 20. The final decision was made at a meeting with aides who presented disappointing poll results.

Yesterday's statement marked the end of his great political career, which was highlighted by eight years as Vice President under Barack Obama, a victory over Trump in 2020, and a term during which the US experienced economic growth and returned to the center of international politics.

US President Joe Biden withdraws from the election amid mass calls from Democrats (photo Getty Images)

Biden's decision was a forced move amid concerns about his age and physical condition, explains political scientist and head of the Center for Applied Political Survays Penta, Volodymyr Fesenko.

"The situation surrounding the assassination attempt on Trump, which caused euphoria in the Republican camp, only intensified the discussion that Democrats need to change their candidate. This is not only about trying to compete in the presidential election but also about fighting for a majority in the lower house of Congress," he told RBC-Ukraine.

Biden's decision also signifies a transformation of the Democratic Party in terms of generational and leadership change. His withdrawal from the presidential campaign will provide impetus to the pro-democratic electorate, and considering that Trump's rating has hardly changed after the assassination attempt, it is still too early to talk about a victory.

"For Ukraine, the main thing now is to work with both parties so that no one can accuse it of leaning towards either the Democrats or the Republicans. As for whether the risk is justified, it's hard to say. The step is forced, let's see what happens at the beginning of November," noted Vladyslav Faraponov, head of the Institute of American Studies, and an analyst at Internews-Ukraine.

Why did Biden propose Kamala Harris as a candidate

In a separate statement, Biden supported Vice President Harris.

"My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this," he said.

It should be noted that Harris made history as Vice President, becoming not only the first woman to hold the second-highest office but also the first person of color to do so. For more details about her, read the special material "Biden's deputy. What is known about Kamala Harris and her position on Ukraine."

Yesterday, she announced her intention to win the Democratic Party nomination. The official decision will be made at the convention on August 19-22 in Chicago. At first glance, it seems like a mere formality. Harris has already been endorsed by influential figures such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, as well as party leaders in all 50 states.

It is evident that not only the Democrats but also the Democratic electorate have rallied around her candidacy. Within a few hours, Harris's campaign raised over $50 million, the largest single-day donation amount since 2020.

It will become clear that Harris will run for President from the Democratic Party once she is confirmed at the August convention.

"My prediction is 70% that Kamala will be the presidential candidate. However, given yesterday's surprise in the electoral race, I wouldn't rush to conclusions," Faraponov noted.

Kamala Harris is likely to run for US President from the Democratic Party (photo Getty Images)

Another intrigue is who will be chosen as the vice-presidential candidate. Several contenders are being discussed, including Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, a state that voted for Trump in 2020; Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, who has high approval ratings in this swing state.

For more on how such states determine the outcome of presidential election, read the special material by RBC-Ukraine.

Other names being mentioned include Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly; rising star Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro; Illinois Governor and billionaire J.B. Pritzker; and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

According to Faraponov, this vacancy gives the Democrats some advantage. The vice-presidential candidate will be chosen based on who can secure additional electoral votes.

"It could possibly be Shapiro, since Pennsylvania is the battleground where Democrats and Republicans are fiercely competing. We will see closer to the convention," the analyst added.

The chances of Harris and whether she is better for Ukraine than Trump

According to polls, Harris starts her campaign with better ratings than Biden. At the moment, she trails Trump by two percentage points - 46% versus 48%. Joe Biden, on average, lagged by three percentage points (44% versus 47%).

Surveys in swing states, before Biden withdrew from the race and the assassination attempt on Trump, show that Harris was only 1% behind in Pennsylvania and comfortably ahead in Virginia by 5%. In both states, she is popular among black voters, youth, and women voters - all key groups the Democrats rely on.

According to a CBS News poll, if the election were held today, 48% of voters would vote for Harris against 51% for Trump. It is difficult to predict whether she will catch up to her opponent or if the numbers will remain roughly the same until the election.

Faraponov believes that Biden's withdrawal could potentially give a few percentage points back to the Democratic candidate. However, much depends on the messages promoted by Harris and Trump.

Perhaps, if everything were based purely on numbers, the Democrats might have chosen a candidate with higher ratings. But the point here is continuity, so that it was actually Biden's team that was competing, says Volodymyr Fesenko.

"Her selection was the choice of the 'lesser evil.' The Democrats concluded that nominating Harris was simpler both organizationally and in terms of maintaining unity. The issue now is not the personalities; they have little impact on the ratings. It is not Kamala Harris but the anti-Trump electorate that will be competing against Trump. To prevent Trump's election and an absolute Republican victory, which would give them a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives," explained the political scientist.

Donald Trump and vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance will run for the Republican nomination (photo by Getty Images)

Whether Harris can consolidate the electorate depends on the effectiveness of her campaign. She is less charismatic compared to Trump and still needs to choose the optimal strategy. Answers to these questions will become clearer as she demonstrates her capabilities in action.

At first glance, Harris's victory might seem better for Ukraine. She has condemned Putin, criticized delays in military aid, and stated at the Peace Summit in Switzerland that the aggressor must be punished.

Donald Trump promises to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, but it is unclear how exactly. He will likely attempt to establish a demarcation line. According to a popular theory, he is prepared to threaten Ukraine to stop the aid and Russia to significantly increase the aid if Moscow does not agree to Washington's terms. However, according to RBC-Ukraine, during a recent conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it was confirmed that Trump does not have a plan for Ukraine, but only a set of general statements on the topic.

Faraponov notes that the question of who is better for Ukraine cannot be framed so categorically. It is crucial for Ukraine to maintain and increase American support.

"Who will ensure this and on what terms is hard to say. The president alone does not allocate aid; the White House administers the aid prepared by Congress. Therefore, when it comes to Ukraine, almost everything will depend on the composition of the Senate and the House of Representatives," he said.

In the 2024 election, Ukraine will not support either Harris or Trump, according to Fesenko. The primary concern is that America maintains stability, strength, and leadership, while for Ukraine, it is crucial to retain bipartisan support.

"Each candidate has their own advantages and disadvantages. The choice will be made by the American people, and we will work with any winner," emphasizes the interlocutor.

Challenges may arise from the divisions within the Republican Party. Some supporters of aid to Ukraine criticize Biden and the Democrats for their caution, as well as opponents of any assistance. The nomination of J.D. Vance has only highlighted these risks.

"That’s why Zelenskyy arranged a phone call with Trump. This is the start of a direct dialogue, which does not mean we will support Trump. What we need is to communicate our interests to him, including on the topic of peace talks with Russia," Fesenko explained.

According to him, working with the Democrats is simpler. Harris will likely maintain Biden's stance on Ukraine, with all its positives and negatives. This is stable and predictable, unlike Trump's policies, which no one can predict with 100% certainty. One topic is almost certain: he will likely initiate negotiations with the Kremlin. On what terms is an open question, so it is important that the dialog with Trump has already begun.

Sources: statements of Joe Biden, materials from Reuters, CNN, Politico, The New York Times, and comments from Ukrainian experts Vladyslav Faraponov and Volodymyr Fesenko.