Who wins World Cup 2026? Supercomputer reveals latest top contender
Argentina national team (photo: Getty Images)
The reigning champions are pushing for a title defense
The new No. 1 favorite in the AI predictions is Argentina.
The current World Cup holders secured two confident victories at the start (including a dominant win over Algeria thanks to a Lionel Messi hat-trick) and rapidly increased their chances of retaining the trophy — from an initial 10.4% to 15.46%.
Meanwhile, France, which held the status of main contender after the first round, has slightly lost ground. The probability of Didier Deschamps’ team winning dropped from 16.1% to 15.06%, causing “Les Bleus” to fall to second place.
Spain’s chances have dropped significantly. Before the start of the 2026 World Cup, “La Furia Roja” was considered the absolute favorite by the AI based on 25,000 simulations.
However, their inconsistent performances on American soil reduced Spain’s chances to 12.48% (third place).
Top 10 2026 World Cup favorites according to Opta after Round 2:
- Argentina — 15.46%
- France — 15.06%
- Spain — 12.48%
- England — 12.28% (improved from 11.34%)
- Portugal
- Germany
- Norway
- Brazil
- Netherlands
- USA / Colombia (ranging from 9.48% to 4.07% respectively)
Meanwhile, five national teams have already officially lost even theoretical chances of reaching the playoffs and are eliminated from the tournament after two rounds. These are Panama, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan, and Haiti.
It is worth noting that the 23rd FIFA World Cup is historic — for the first time, it features 48 national teams instead of 32, divided into 12 groups.
The Ukrainian national team, unfortunately, failed to qualify for the World Cup, losing to Sweden in the semifinal of the European qualification playoffs.
