Who will win the US election? Polls and forecasts
Photo: Voting at the US polls (Getty Images)
On the night of November 6, 2024, or by the following morning, it will likely become clear who won the US election - Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. The winner will head the new White House administration for the next four years.
RBC-Ukraine provides candidate ratings and forecasts.
Final ratings
The final NBC News poll shows that the two candidates are neck and neck. Kamala Harris has the support of 49% of voters, while Donald Trump has an identical 49%. Only 2% of respondents said they were uncertain about their choice.
Harris benefits from growing Democratic enthusiasm, support for her future policies on abortion rights, and middle-class issues. Trump, on the other hand, is favored thanks to positive assessments of his first term (compared to Joe Biden’s results) and the fact that two-thirds of voters believe the country is on the wrong track.
Photo: NBC News poll results (nbcnews.com)
The main battle will take place in seven swing states. Final polls from Emerson College Polling/The Hill show that ratings in these states are too close to predict results:
- Michigan – 50% vs. 48% in favor of Harris
- Nevada – 48% vs. 48%
- Wisconsin – 49% vs. 49%
- Georgia – 50% vs. 49% in favor of Trump
- North Carolina – 49% vs. 48% in favor of Trump
- Pennsylvania – 49% vs. 48% in favor of Trump
- Arizona – 50% vs. 48% in favor of Trump
The ratings are within the margin of error.
According to a HarrisX/Forbes poll, Harris leads Trump with 49% against 48%, taking into account other candidates from smaller parties like Jill Stein (Green Party) and Cornel West (independent).
In a head-to-head race, Harris leads Trump 51% to 49%. Among early voters, 57% support the current Vice President, while 40% back the Republican candidate. Early voting usually sees a higher turnout among Democratic Party supporters.
The Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows equal support for Harris and Trump nationwide, with both at 47%.
Predictive models
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in respected forecasts by polling expert Nate Silver (American statistician) and the FiveThirtyEight service.
Silver's forecast, based on 80,000 simulations of the presidential race using polling data, gives Harris a 50.015% chance of winning against Trump’s 49.985%. Essentially, it’s a tie.
Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won 40,012 and lost 39,988 times. In 39,718 cases, Trump achieved a clean victory, while 270 simulations ended in an exact tie of 269-269 in the Electoral College. This suggests that if the Electoral College vote results in a tie, Trump will most likely become president following a vote in the US House of Representatives.
FiveThirtyEight assesses Trump’s chances at 49 in 100 and Harris’s at 50 in 100. The likelihood of neither candidate winning after the Electoral College vote is 1 in 100.
Close polling races do not necessarily mean that the result will also be close. All seven swing states are within the typical margin of error.
Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s predictions evaluate the likelihood of victory and do not depend on polls predicting how many votes each candidate will receive. Still, the results of many national polls in swing states remain essentially equal.
Sources: polling data from NBC News, Emerson College Polling/The Hill, HarrisX/Forbes, Yahoo News/YouGov, as well as the predictive models of analyst Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.
Washington and over 20 states are deploying military personnel to protect polling stations and government buildings. If Trump loses, his supporters might incite unrest.
Read more about the election and when the results will be available following the link.
This US election is especially crucial for Ukraine. The results could determine whether America will continue financial and military support or push for negotiations with Russia, possibly on unfavorable terms.
Read more in the article Coin tossed: Will Ukraine see good news after US presidential election.
