Trump vs. Harris: US election key points and when results to be available

Contents

• Election date and ratings
• Exit polls and election results
• Donald Trump's promises
• Kamala Harris' promises

Election date and ratings

The US election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The winner will spend 4 years in the White House, starting with the inauguration on January 20, 2025.

Tomorrow, American citizens will elect not only the president but also the next composition of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate of the US Congress. Read more about this in the Beyond presidential race: Why 2024 US Congressional elections matter for Ukraine article.

Polling hours may vary from state to state. However, in most places, they will be open from 6 a.m. local time. On Election Day, most voters physically vote at polling stations. Some Americans have already cast their votes in advance using the early voting system or voting by mail. As of November 3, more than 75 million people had exercised this right, almost half of the total number of voters in 2020.

The so-called swing states play a huge role on Election Day. As a rule, they support either Democrats or Republicans by a small margin.

In the last few elections, Pennsylvania was a critical state with 19 electoral college votes, and 2024 will be no exception. These states also include Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio. Read more about this in the Swing state spotlight: How key states decide 2024 US presidential election article.

The chances of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are almost equal. According to a Wall Street Journal poll, last week 47% of voters were ready to support Trump versus 45% for Harris. However, the gap is within the statistical margin of error.

Ten days before the election, the candidates were tied in 7 swing states. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed 49% each with a margin of error of one percent. A national Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 44% for Harris and 43% for Trump.

A more recent Times/YouGov poll shows a slight advantage for Harris in four of the seven key states. She leads in Wisconsin (49% vs. 45%), Pennsylvania (49% vs. 46%), Michigan (48% vs. 45%) and Nevada (48% vs. 47%). Trump is more supported in North Carolina (49% vs. 48%) and Georgia (48% vs. 47%). In Arizona, both have 48%.

The day before the election, an NBC poll showed national ratings at 49% to 49%. Average ratings in key states:

• Arizona - 49.1% vs. 46.5% (in favor of Trump)
• Wisconsin - 48.2% vs. 47.4% (in favor of Harris)
• Georgia - 48.6% vs. 47.1% (in favor of Trump)
• Michigan - 47.9% vs. 47.1% (in favor of Harris)
• Nevada - 47.9% vs. 47.3% (in favor of Trump)
• Pennsylvania - 47.9% vs. 47.7% (in favor of Trump)
• North Carolina - 48.4% vs. 47.2% (in favor of Trump)

Regardless of who wins, the outcome of the election will be of historical significance.

Kamala Harris could become the first woman president in US history. And also the first black woman of South Asian descent to hold the office.

Trump's victory will have a different kind of historical achievement. He could become the first president to be convicted of a felony (he was convicted on 34 counts in a bribery case). He also faces charges in at least two other criminal cases.

Exit polls and election results

The first exit polls will be available after 5 p.m. North American Eastern Time. However, they will be announced only in states where the advantage of a candidate is obvious. Exit polls in key swing states will be held back until the end of the vote so as not to influence the outcome.

Since 1990, most of the leading media outlets have joined the National Election Pool (NAP) to jointly commission a single exit poll. Edison Research has traditionally worked with this pool, which includes ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, and Reuters.

On Election Day, more than 3,000 Edison Research employees will be working at polling stations across the country. Several hundred telephone operators will work with them to quickly collect and process the results of the polls.

Over 100,000 voters were polled in the 2020 election. In the current election, we are talking about the same number of respondents.

Usually, votes in each state are counted after the polls close. The closing time may vary, but it is usually around 7 p.m. local time. Due to the multiple time zones in the United States, ballots on the East Coast are counted before states such as Alaska and Hawaii finish voting.

Usually, votes cast on Election Day are counted first. Then early and mail-in ballots, as well as ballots cast by military personnel and Americans abroad. Verification includes comparing the number of votes cast with the number of active voters. Counting involves loading each ballot into electronic scanners. In some cases, manual counting or double-checking is required.

The procedure for processing votes is open to the public, and party observers can monitor the process.

News agencies will publish data for each state, but without officially declaring a winner until all votes in the states are counted. If the outcome of the race is clear, the winner may be announced on election night or the next morning. However, in situations where the outcome is contested, the final decision may take several days or weeks, depending on the speed of the vote count or the presence of legal challenges.

For example, in 2020, Joe Biden was declared the winner four days after the election, as soon as the results in Pennsylvania were tabulated. And in 2016, Donald Trump was declared the winner the very next day.

Other scenarios that could cause a delay include possible unrest at polling stations and obstacles to the vote count. For example, as was the case with a water pipe bursting at a polling station in Georgia in 2020.

Donald Trump's promises

Trump has made a number of promises to revive the economy. His plans include imposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China. According to him, such tariffs will protect American jobs, stimulate domestic production, and reduce dependence on foreign goods.

Trump promises to return all the tax breaks he introduced in 2017, as well as to reduce rates for individuals and businesses. His proposals include the elimination of taxes on tips and social security payments. He also plans to reduce the corporate tax rate, which, according to him, will stimulate economic growth and job creation. Analysts estimate that the tax breaks could add $5.8 trillion to the US national debt over 10 years.

He stated that he had reduced the corporate tax to 21% and would gladly reduce it further to 15%, emphasizing that this would be highly beneficial for jobs, as it would make the US tax rate very competitive and attract businesses to the country.

Trump promises to cut American energy costs in half within a year. According to him, he will be able to lower gasoline prices below $2 per gallon (about 3.8 liters).

Trump criticizes NATO. He does not like the fact that some members do not fulfill their commitment to military spending of at least 2% of GDP. He threatens them that they will not be able to fully rely on collective defense.

The Biden administration led NATO in providing military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Trump, on the other hand, is making it clear that he may cut off support and put pressure on Kyiv. At the very least, analysts believe that his intention to end the Russian-Ukrainian war before the inauguration could mean peace on Moscow's terms with territorial concessions to Ukraine.

Regarding migrants, Trump and his vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance promise to carry out the largest deportation in American history. Trump plans to revise refugee programs and abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.

Kamala Harris' promises

Kamala Harris opposes Trump's plans to increase import duties. She calls it a national sales tax on essential goods that would cost the average American family $4,000 a year.

The tax plan is also different. Harris promises big benefits to low- and middle-income families earning between $32,800 and $63,000 a year. While raising taxes on those earning millions.

According to her, a $6,000 tax credit for parents of newborns will help buy a crib, car seat, or children's clothes. And a $50,000 tax break for small businesses will help create new jobs.

As for migrants, Harris seems to continue Biden's policy. She mentioned that they had reduced the flow of migrants by half, referring to the recent measures implemented at the border with Mexico

She also wants to restore women's reproductive rights across America. Harris promises to veto any attempt by Congress to impose a national ban on abortion.

The Democratic candidate is an ardent supporter of Israel. She reaffirmed her commitment to consistently provide Israel with everything it needs for its defense.

Harris condemns the war in the Gaza Strip, but, unlike Biden, does not advocate for a two-state solution. In this regard, she made only vague statements that a solution was needed that would allow Palestinians to realize their right to dignity, freedom, and self-determination.

At a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September, she said that she would ensure Ukraine's victory in this war. She also noted that if Trump returns to the White House, Vladimir Putin will be sitting in Kyiv.

Sources: The Washington Post, NBC, Bloomberg, and BBC, as well as statements by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.