War risk rising: Lithuania says conflict with Russia could come before 2030
Lithuania updates national security strategy amid Russia threat (illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Lithuania has begun updating its national security strategy, warning of an existential threat to the state and a potential risk of Russia launching a war against NATO by the end of the decade, LRT reports.
As the outlet reports, the revised document emphasizes that the main pillars of Lithuania's defense remain the armed forces, societal resilience, and support from allies. The state must be prepared to defend itself in the event of a full-scale war.
Impact of Russia's war against Ukraine
Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa noted that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine merely confirmed assessments already contained in the previous national security strategy, which was adopted two months before the war began.
"The invasion only underscored what had already been identified. The strategy could have been revised at that time as well," Aleksa said.
Risk of conflict by 2030
The updated strategy explicitly states that the likelihood of a military conflict may increase by 2030. Former Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas emphasized that some Western analysts do not rule out that Russia could be ready for war even earlier, as it is already stockpiling military equipment.
"Looking toward 2030, the probability of a military conflict may increase," Aleksa responded.
Focus on the army and allies
The document calls for strengthening armed defense, establishing a military division, developing territorial defense, and increasing national resilience. It separately underscores the key role of allies, particularly the United States' military presence in the region.
At the same time, some experts criticize the strategy for insufficient attention to air defense issues and the threat from Belarus.
Defense funding
The updated strategy provides for increasing defense spending to 5–6% of GDP. It is expected that Lithuania's defense budget will exceed 5% of GDP as early as next year.
Analysts emphasize that the strategy's success will depend on its practical implementation and stable funding.
The revised document is to be reviewed by the State Defense Council and approved by the Lithuanian parliament.
Putin will not stop at Ukraine
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have published a new report on the situation surrounding Ukraine and Russia. It states that since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Belarus has effectively turned into a Russian military base.
According to experts, attacks on western regions of Ukraine are carried out, among other things, using military infrastructure on Belarusian territory. ISW forecasts that Moscow will continue to expand its military presence there, supporting the war against Ukraine and creating potential threats to NATO countries.
Similar warnings were previously voiced by German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, who allowed for the possibility of a Russian attack on one of the NATO states after a peace agreement with Ukraine.
At the same time, the head of Ukraine's Defense Ministry Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, noted that Russia is not capable of waging a war on two fronts simultaneously. However, if hostilities in Ukraine end, the Baltic states could become the Kremlin's next potential target.
Baltic region states are stepping up preparations for possible military threats from Russia and Belarus. In particular, structures are being installed on Lithuania's borders with Belarus and Russia to enable the demolition of bridges in the event of an armed conflict.
