US weapons pause sparks new threats for Ukraine's military, ISW warns
Illustrative photo: Ukrainian military without proper weapons (Getty Images)
Against the backdrop of the United States suspending the supply of ammunition to Ukraine, analysts are forecasting an escalation of the situation at the front and a weakening of the defense capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Experts are warning about a possible increase in losses and the strengthening of Russia's positions, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
In particular, ISW experts believe that the US decision to suspend the transfer of ammunition to Ukraine, including the critically important missiles for the Patriot air defense systems, could have severe consequences not only for the front line but also for the civilian population.
Risks for the civilian population
According to analysts, the pause in supplying ammunition to Ukraine will most likely force the Armed Forces to save resources significantly, which will weaken their ability to defend against large-scale Russian air attacks.
This move by the Pentagon, by the way, sharply contrasts with the stated goal of American President Donald Trump - supposedly to reduce the number of casualties among the Ukrainian civilian population.
Strengthening Putin's theory of victory
In addition, ISW points out that similar decisions have already had a dramatic effect on the situation at the front earlier. Thus, the temporary suspension of US military aid in 2023 gave Russia the opportunity to advance in certain directions. The new delay could also accelerate Russian successes on the battlefield.
A particularly dangerous consequence, in ISW's view, is that such pauses reinforce Vladimir Putin's perception of the so-called theory of victory - the belief that the West will eventually get tired, stop supporting, and Ukraine will not be able to resist Russian offensive actions.
Analysts emphasize: the key risk remains the weakening of Ukraine's air defense, which protects both military facilities and peaceful cities from constant strikes by Russian missiles and drones. Therefore, delays or reductions in supplies can directly lead to an increase in the number of civilian casualties.
Suspension of supplies
On Wednesday, July 2, the United States temporarily suspended supplying weapons to Ukraine, including important missiles for the Patriot air defense systems.
The media have already published the list of US weapons that never reached Ukraine.
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said that such a decision was made based on the principle of "America First."
The United States also stopped providing critically important support for the F-16 radar systems located in Ukraine. This decision by Trump has significantly complicated the situation for the Ukrainian military.
Meanwhile, while Ukraine remains without support, the US decided to arm Argentina with Stryker armored fighting vehicles and F-16 fighter jets.
