US election results hinge on 7 states: Where and who holds the lead
Voting in the US election (photo: Getty Images)
The fate of US presidential elections is always determined by just a few swing states. In the 2024 election, there are only seven such states.
RBC-Ukraine explains why they are so important and gives Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's ratings there.
Why swing states are important in the US election
The US has a peculiar electoral system. It consists of two stages. First, citizens vote for electors in their state. Then the electors cast their votes for the president.
To win the presidential election, one needs to win the votes of 270 out of 538 electors. The number of electors varies from state to state, depending on the population. In most states, Trump or Harris have a significant advantage over their opponent. Yet, there are some states where voter preferences change from election to election. These states are called swing states.
In the 2024 election, there are seven swing states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona.
In each of them, Harris and Trump's ratings are almost equal. The gap between the candidates is much smaller than the statistical error. In practice, this means that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focusing substantial attention and a large share of their advertising budgets on these states, neglecting others.
The most important state for the candidates is Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes. It is followed by Michigan and Georgia with 16, North Carolina with 15, Arizona with 11, Wisconsin with 10, and Nevada with 6.
Trump and Harris' ratings in swing states
As in the country as a whole, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's ratings are almost identical in the disputed swing states. And the small advantage of one of the rivals is significantly less than the statistical error.
Harris and Trump's average ratings in key states (according to FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator):
Arizona
Trump - 49.1%; Harris - 46.5%.
Wisconsin
Harris - 48.2%; Trump - 47.4%
Georgia
Trump - 48.6%; Harris - 47.1%
Michigan
Harris - 47.9%; Trump - 47.1%
Nevada
Trump - 47.9%; Harris - 47.3%;
Pennsylvania
Trump - 47.9%; Harris - 47.7%
North Carolina
Trump - 48.4%; Harris - 47.2% .
Read also about the role of the Ukrainian, Arab and Israeli diasporas in swing states.
RBC-Ukraine also reported how a large number of Americans are casting their votes not only at polling stations but also remotely.
Read more news about the presidential campaign, candidate ratings, and pitfalls of the electoral system in the US Elections section on RBC-Ukraine.
Sources: data from the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator and public information about the US government.
