Important votes: Why Ukrainian diaspora matters in US election

Сontents

• Compact living as an advantage in elections
• In which states the voice of the Ukrainian community is particularly important
• Indirect influence on politicians in the US

During his visit to the United States, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Ukrainian diaspora in Pennsylvania, among other places. Donald Trump and the Republicans perceived this step as interference in the election. Therefore, RBC-Ukraine decided to find out what role the Ukrainian community plays in the US election and American politics.

Compact living as an advantage in elections

The number of Americans who identify themselves as Ukrainian is relatively small - about 1 million. According to the annual American Community Survey (ACS) of the US Census Bureau, cited in 2019 by a well-known American demographer, author of the English-language Atlas of Ukrainians in the United States Oleh Wolowyna, this is about 0.3% of the country's population. Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the number of Ukrainians in the United States has increased, but refugees do not participate in elections because they do not have American citizenship.

To win the US presidential election, one needs to win a majority of votes in each state. The vast majority of them are dominated by one of the two major US parties. However, there are a few states where the positions of Democrats and Republicans are approximately equal. These states are called swing states. They are the ones where the main battle is taking place and often the fate of the election can be decided by a few thousand votes. The fact that Ukrainians in some states are a fairly large community, whose representatives live in relatively compact areas, can make their votes decisive, precisely because of the specifics of the US electoral system.

In which states the voice of the Ukrainian community is particularly important

Some Ukrainians do not go to the polls, just like other Americans. About 20% of the community is not eligible to vote because they have not yet reached the appropriate age. However, as Reuters notes, in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, the size of the Ukrainian-American community is larger than the number of votes Trump needed to win in 2016.

In the already mentioned swing state, Pennsylvania, about 92 thousand people identify themselves as Ukrainian-Americans. There are other data as well. In 2022, the local media PennLive reported that the Ukrainian community in the state amounted to 122 thousand.

Another swing state Michigan is home to approximately 33,000 Americans of Ukrainian descent. At the same time, Trump won the previous election there with a margin of only 11 thousand votes.

There are no separate polls on the political views of the Ukrainian community, but Ukrainians have traditionally tended to support Republicans, Radio Liberty notes. However, in recent years, their preferences have been changing, at least when it comes to national elections.

For Ukrainians in the United States, the candidates' programs on common issues such as the economy, migration, and abortion rights are important, but the position on support for Ukraine is almost decisive. It is Trump's anti-Ukrainian rhetoric that has been driving the Ukrainian community away from him and the Republicans in recent years.

However, the situation is more complicated now. Trump's 2024 election campaign is characterized by extremely inconsistent statements about Ukraine: he sharply criticizes the Ukrainian leadership, then meets with President Zelenskyy in a friendly atmosphere.

Indirect influence on politicians in the US

Apart from presidential elections, the Ukrainian community can also influence American politics by voting for congressmen.

Across the United States, in at least 13 congressional districts, the Ukrainian community exceeds or roughly equals the number of votes needed to win (one member of the US House of Representatives is elected from one congressional district). Therefore, the desire to please their voters is often an additional reason why a congressman takes a pro-Ukrainian position.

Among American politicians of Ukrainian descent, Victoria Spartz, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump and, unfortunately, an opponent of aid to Ukraine, has been the most prominent recently. She also became the first congresswoman born in Ukraine. But Spartz is rather an exception in American politics. After all, she was elected from Indiana, where the Ukrainian community is small.

Another congresswoman, Marcy Kaptur, has a great influence in the US Congress. She has long been taking initiatives in support of Ukraine, notes Alla Atamanenko, a professor at the National University of Ostroh Academy. Kaptur is a co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus. The caucus unites more than 90 congressmen.

In 2023, Marcy Kaptur officially became the longest-serving woman in Congress. She has been elected from the 9th district of Pennsylvania since 1982.

Similarly, some state governors are of Ukrainian descent. For example, Colorado Governor Jared Polis is a third-generation immigrant who came to the United States from Poland and Ukraine in the early 20th century. After the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, his office collected aid for Ukraine and dealt with Ukrainian refugees.

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker's family also comes from Ukraine. Pritzker has strongly condemned Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and the Illinois National Guard has close ties with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and has even participated in training some units.

Sources: statistics on the Ukrainian diaspora in the United States, articles by Reuters, PennLive, Radio Liberty, and comments by Alla Atamanenko, Director of the Institute for the Ukrainian Diaspora Studies of the National University of Ostroh Academy named after Professor Liubomyr Vynar.

Earlier, we wrote why the US elections are held on Tuesday instead of Sunday, as in most countries.