US considering Korean scenario to end Russia's war against Ukraine — The Washington Post

Ignatius, citing his own sources among American, Ukrainian, and European officials, writes that despite the harsh and not very adequate rhetoric of US President Donald Trump, a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine seems likely to be reached.

He states that peace in Ukraine should look like this: "a sovereign nation, its borders protected by international security guarantees, that is part of the European Union and rebuilding its economy with big investments from the United States and Europe."

Ignatius notes that Trump could ruin the situation by putting so much pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Zelenskyy and his European allies decide to continue the war despite its terrible cost. This is especially true now that Europe is irritated by the new US National Security Strategy, which has complicated negotiations.

"That evenhandedness between friend and foe makes no sense, strategically or morally — and it genuinely worries Europe," the journalist stresses.

Peace agreement

Ignatius confirmed that three documents are being considered as part of the peace agreement: the peace plan itself, security guarantees, and a plan for Ukraine's economic recovery. He outlined some possible points of the agreement and nuances of the proposed peace arrangements:

• Ukraine will become a member of the EU in 2027. The US administration believes that it will overcome the resistance of Hungary, the biggest opponent of Ukraine's accession to the European Union. Ignatius noted that, given Vladimir Putin's hatred of Ukraine and its European integration, this looks like a victory.
• The US will provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter. Ukraine is demanding that this be ratified by the US Congress. Separate security guarantees will be signed by European countries.
• Ukraine's sovereignty will be protected from any Russian veto.
• In addition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which number 800,000 soldiers, Ukraine will have additional forces - the National Guard and other support forces. At the same time, Ukraine categorically refuses to constitutionally limit the army.
• Korean option: a ceasefire will be implemented along the entire line of contact. In the future, a demilitarized zone and a zone prohibiting heavy weapons will be created there. The line will be monitored in a similar way to how the DMZ between South and North Korea is controlled.
• Stumbling block: Russia and the US are trying to force Ukraine to hand over to Russia approximately 25% of the Donetsk region, a territory held by Russian troops. Trump claims that Ukraine will lose this territory anyway after six months of fighting. Kyiv rejects any territorial exchange options.
• The Korean option for territories: Ukraine will not recognize that its temporarily occupied lands belong to Russia. North Korea still claims the entire Korean Peninsula, and South Korea says the same.
• The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will not be under Russian control. The US may take over the management of the ZNPP. Interestingly, Ukrainian officials like this idea.
• Frozen Russian assets will be partially transferred to Ukraine for reconstruction and economic development, namely, at least €100 billion. In addition, financial giant BlackRock will create a Ukraine Development Fund with $400 billion for reconstruction. The World Bank's participation is being considered.

The journalist adds that Trump will have to conclude a smart deal in Ukraine that will be long-term. Otherwise, the war will not only resume but will become even stronger. The biggest mistake he can make now is to insist on it's now or never.

"Rather than trying to squeeze Zelenskyy into a deal, the Trump negotiators should work with European allies to create a package of security guarantees and economic incentives that’s attractive enough that Ukrainians would be willing to swallow the bitter pill of giving up the slice of Donetsk that Russia has failed to conquer. Otherwise, Ukrainians will keep fighting," Ignatius concludes.

Peace talks

Ukraine, together with the US and European partners, is discussing three key documents related to the formation of a peace plan: a framework agreement, a package of security guarantees, and a separate document defining the basic principles of post-war reconstruction.

Although discussions on the possible parameters of a future agreement to end the war are ongoing, the positions of the key parties still differ significantly. According to European estimates, this could drag out the peace process for months.

Kyiv's attitude toward the Kremlin's wishes was demonstrated by Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN, Andrii Melnyk, who said during a UN Security Council meeting that Russia would get nothing and not Ukraine.

European countries categorically reject US President Donald Trump's statements that Ukraine is allegedly losing the war and that Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield. According to the US, EU, and Ukrainian military, there are currently no significant changes on the front lines and no signs that Russia could make progress.