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Ukrainian diplomat assesses likelihood of Ukraine's invitation to NATO

Ukrainian diplomat assesses likelihood of Ukraine's invitation to NATO Photo: Volodymyr Ohryzko (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Author: Liliana Oleniak

Inviting Ukraine to join NATO seems unlikely at the moment. This is a matter of political will and determination, says Ukrainian diplomat and former Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko.

“A figure like Orban could say, ‘I oppose it.’ There’s no time to persuade Orban, especially since he knows Trump might support him in two months,” the diplomat says.

He adds that the issue of inviting Ukraine to NATO has become theoretical. According to Ohryzko, if Democrat Kamala Harris had won, such an option might have been possible. But now, according to the diplomat, the chances are minimal.

“However, Orban could still 'step out for coffee' when decisions are made, which is also possible. It’s all a matter of political will and decisiveness. And if there is no will, then we’re back to political impotence,” the diplomat believes.

Ukraine's accession to NATO

During Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine made progress in joining NATO. In the fall of 2022, Ukraine applied for accelerated accession to the Alliance.

The Ukrainian leadership called for a political decision and a clear timetable for accession. So far, no such decision has been made.

NATO has repeatedly assured that it keeps its 'door open' for Ukraine. However, the allies emphasize that Ukraine will not be able to join the Alliance until the war is over.

As President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, inviting Ukraine to NATO is part of Ukraine's victory plan. At the same time, Ukraine would like to receive the invitation before Donald Trump returns to the White House.