Ukrainian counterattacks in south could disrupt Russian offensive plans for spring and summer — ISW
Ukrainian counterattacks in south could disrupt Russian offensive in spring and summer (photo: Getty Images)
Successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces on the southern front could disrupt Russia's offensive plan for spring–summer 2026, a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says.
According to analytics, the Defense Forces of Ukraine intensified counterattacks not only in directions of Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole, but also in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region.
"These counterattacks are generating tactical, operational, and strategic effects that may disrupt Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive campaign plan," the article says.
ISW notes that the Russian command likely expected a gradual advance of its troops in the Huliaipole area. According to this plan, offensive was supposed to complement attacks near Orikhiv, which would allow Russian forces to advance toward the city simultaneously from east and west.
From this perspective, this could open a path for further advances of Russian troops toward Zaporizhzhia.
However, due to the active actions of Ukrainian forces, the situation in the south has become more complicated for Russian troops.
As analysts note, at the beginning of March Russian army faces a much more difficult combat situation than at the beginning of 2026.
In addition, Ukrainian counterattacks in directions of Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole, and in other areas of the Zaporizhzhia region have a strategic effect on other parts of the front as well.
The report emphasizes that these actions demonstrate limitations of resources and the structure of Russian forces in Ukraine.
Photo: ISW
Deoccupation of the territories of Ukraine
Yesterday, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Defense Forces of Ukraine are trying to seize operational initiative and force the Russians to play by their rules.
Also, according to him, the Ukrainian military in one month regained control over a larger area of territory than the Russian army captured during the same period. This happened for the first time since the Kursk operation in 2024.
In addition, ISW analysts recently obtained evidence confirming Ukraine's successes on the battlefield in February.
