Ukrainian army likely shot down Russian Su-34 fighter jet with American F-16 - ISW

The report indicates that a Russian military blogger closely connected to the Russian aviation community confirmed on October 12 the loss of the Su-34 aircraft but did not provide further details about the incident.

The blogger stated that the crew of the Russian fighter jet was killed but noted that this loss was not related to a Ukrainian strike. Other military bloggers speculated that the Su-34 might have crashed due to technical malfunction or human error.

A Russian Telegram channel, which claims to be managed by Russian airborne (VDV) officers and staff of the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces, claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet presumably shot down the Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft while the Su-34 was dropping FAB glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPC) at a distance of about 50 kilometers from the frontline.

Later, the same Telegram channel reacted to the information suggesting that the Su-34 might have crashed due to technical issues or human error, asserting that such hypothetical scenarios highlight the obsolescence of Russian aircraft as well as the unprofessionalism and exhaustion of the pilots.

The Telegram channel accused Kremlin-linked military bloggers of lying about the Su-34 crash and hindering Russian forces from developing countermeasures against the Ukrainian F-16 threat.

It was noted that in March 2024, the same Telegram channel claimed that Roskomnadzor had filed a complaint against it for discrediting a Russian military commander.

"ISW cannot independently confirm the Telegram channel’s claim, but if confirmed, this incident would mark the first Ukrainian shootdown of a Russian manned aircraft with a Western-provided F-16 fighter jet," the report states.

F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine

Since the onset of the full-scale invasion, official Kyiv has appealed to Western partners for the provision of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. In spring 2023, an aviation coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands was established. Initially, ten countries joined, with several more countries later adding their support.

Ukrainian pilots underwent accelerated training on this type of aircraft. Typically, such training takes about five years, but the training for Ukrainians was completed in less than a year.

The first F-16s were received by the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the beginning of August this year.

These fighter jets played an active role in repelling a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine on August 26. It was later revealed that during the mission, one of the F-16s crashed, resulting in the pilot's death.

Analysts do not rule out that the crash may have been caused by debris from a downed enemy missile.