Why Trump rushes to announce Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and what diesel has to do with it
Photo: US President Donald Trump (Getty Images)
There are two possible reasons why US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced that Ukraine and Russia had allegedly agreed not to attack each other's energy facilities.
Political analyst and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, Volodymyr Fesenko, said this in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Trump's statements should be treated with caution
As Fesenko noted, it is unclear from what Trump wrote on his social media who discussed these alleged agreements, with whom, and how. Overall, he said, statements by the US president should be treated with skepticism.
"Because Trump is Trump. I take any statement by Trump very cautiously. It should not be taken as the ultimate truth, that everything has already been agreed and everything has been done. Trump lives in a parallel reality. And Trump can talk about things that do not exist," he explained.
According to Fesenko, if Ukraine and Russia were indeed offered an energy ceasefire but without specific negotiations on it, then the prospects for such an idea are very doubtful. As an example, he recalled attempts by the US administration to achieve a similar ceasefire in the spring of last year.
"But everything fell apart because there was no agreed document. The Americans held separate negotiations with the Russians and separate negotiations with us. They allegedly reached an agreement, but in the end everything fell apart and the Russians refused to implement it. A similar story could happen now," the political analyst said.
Two versions of why Trump rushed
In a conversation with RBC-Ukraine, Fesenko suggested two possible reasons why the US president rushed to make the statement about the ceasefire.
"First version: there was an idea, there were proposals, and there could have been an abstractly positive response... In the style of what Zelenskyy said, 'We are ready if the other side complies.' But to what extent? Which facilities? Who will monitor how this is implemented? All of this, as I understand it, has not been agreed. This is the first version, and today it is more likely," he suggested.
The second version, according to him, is related to the approaching US midterm congressional elections, in which Republicans may face serious problems. In particular, because of record diesel fuel prices in the US. Therefore, Trump is trying to repeat the effect his statements about a ceasefire with Iran had on oil prices.
"For him, it is important to announce this (even before an agreement is reached - ed.) because he hopes that, as with oil prices... he repeatedly, remember, made statements about a ceasefire? Many times. And this had an effect - a decline in oil prices. Now he hopes for the same effect," Fesenko explained.
The expert believes that Trump is not actually interested in whether a ceasefire becomes a reality, whether there is a cessation of hostilities, or how effective and long-lasting it will be. The main thing is for it to have a positive effect on the domestic situation in the US ahead of the congressional elections.
"And after that, he is no longer interested in it. The main thing is the relative effect. He expects that, as with the stock market or global oil markets, this could affect current diesel prices in the US. And that is precisely why he is promoting this idea," he said.
The Moscow Exchange market has already reacted to Trump's statement about an alleged agreement on an energy ceasefire. The Moscow Exchange Index, according to Russian media, rose by more than 3.6%.
According to Fesenko, what we are seeing today is more of a political PR move by the US president than concrete agreements with Ukraine and Russia.
"This is work with the domestic audience. So it is too early to beat the trumpets and expect any, even sectoral, ceasefire regarding energy facilities... There is currently no confirmation that any agreements exist," he noted.
Can Russia be trusted to honor agreements
Even if a ceasefire agreement is actually reached, Fesenko believes that without specific agreements concerning specific facilities, there will be violations.
"They (the Russians - ed.) may imitate a certain ceasefire for Trump's sake. And then they will accuse the Ukrainian side, saying that, supposedly, we are complying, while the Ukrainian side is not, and is carrying out strikes on Russian oil refineries. Such an option is possible; that is Putin's style," he explained.
Therefore, according to the political analyst, there are currently no grounds for optimistic assessments, but there is a certain purely theoretical possibility of reaching some form of sectoral ceasefire.
"But whether it will be implemented — unfortunately, there are still many doubts," he concluded.
What Trump said and how Ukraine responded
On the evening of Monday, September 14, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets. Russia has agreed to do likewise." He also once again claimed that diesel prices are rising not because of the conflict with Iran that he started, but because of the consequences of the war between Ukraine and Russia.
After that, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published his own statement, in which he reminded that Ukraine itself had appealed to its partners to secure an agreement with Russia on a ceasefire not only regarding energy facilities, but also ports, logistics, warehouses, and other facilities essential for ensuring basic living conditions.
However, Ukraine expects its partners to ensure Russia genuinely complies with the agreement so that the ceasefire does not end after the Russian elections. Therefore, according to Zelenskyy, Kyiv is currently awaiting specifics from its partners.
As early as this morning, the Kremlin refused to comment on the possibility of an energy ceasefire with Ukraine. At the same time, it supported calls by the US president for Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.
