Ukraine won’t see €90 billion from EU soon: It’s not because of Hungary
European Central Bank (Photo: Getty Images)
When Hungary officially withdraws its disagreement with providing a loan to Ukraine, Slovakia, and Prime Minister Robert Fico will become an obstacle on the way. In addition, there are other factors such as European bureaucracy and lengthy paperwork, reports Euractiv.
The delay could last for weeks due to the stance of new players and old grievances of neighbors, the portal writes. Furthermore, significant time will pass before Hungary's new prime minister, Péter Magyar, forms a new government.
However, the election winner himself has already confirmed that he will unblock Orbán's decision. According to him, the decision on this matter was effectively made back in December at the level of the European Council.
However, it should be added that Magyar wants to clarify once again with the EU that Hungary will not finance Ukraine, although it has no objection to the loan itself:
"I don’t fully understand this. I will discuss it with European leaders. But personally, I agree that Hungary should opt out."
Slovakia factor and oil blackmail
The Hungarian veto is not the only problem. Robert Fico of Slovakia now steps onto the scene and may try to play the role of Orbán. Bratislava depends on Russian oil, and the Druzhba pipeline runs through Ukraine. Fico has promised to block the loan if supplies are not fully restored.
However, EU diplomats remain optimistic. Fico is a pragmatist and easier to convince than the ideological Orbán.
Will Ukraine's economy withstand the delay
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains optimistic and has stated that repairs to the oil pipeline will be completed this spring. This should address Fico's grievances.
Experts also do not see a catastrophe – Ukraine has a margin of resilience. The money is needed, but the deficit is not critical at the moment.
Maksym Samoyliuk, an economist at the Center for Economic Strategy, believes that Kyiv will remain solvent until mid-July. To achieve this, funds earmarked for the end of the year could be used. Dividends from state-owned enterprises and military bonds will also help.
What else is known about the €90 billion loan to Ukraine
Germany expects a very fast delivery of €90 billion to Ukraine following Orbán's defeat. Tomorrow, April 15, EU diplomats will discuss how best to expedite the transfer of funds to Kyiv.
Furthermore, the EU could also pressure Magyar himself. During Orbán's tenure, a loan to Hungary was frozen, so it could be reminded that Hungary needs to carry out reforms to receive its own €35 billion loan.
A swift decision on unblocking by Hungary could also be influenced by a meeting between Magyar and Zelenskyy. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already sent signals to Hungary regarding the earliest possible contacts between the two leaders.
