Ukraine undermines Russia's key advantage: Putin's dilemma exposed
Photo: Fewer and fewer Russians are willing to go to war in Ukraine (Getty Images)
Ukraine has thwarted Russia’s strategy of numerical superiority: drones and medium-range strikes are destroying manpower and equipment faster than Moscow can replenish them, according to the ISW.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has based its strategy on one thing: overwhelming Ukraine with military force. That strategy no longer works.
Ukrainian forces have gained a tactical advantage in the use of drones across the entire front line. Combined with medium-range strikes, this allows them to destroy Russian equipment and manpower much faster than Moscow can replenish them.
Even Kremlin military bloggers admit: effective reconnaissance by Ukrainian drones on the front lines has nullified the infiltration tactics that Russia had relied on in previous months.
Roads to front blocked
In the spring of 2026, Ukraine sharply intensified its medium-range strikes and achieved tangible results. Traffic on key routes between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea has been disrupted, particularly on the M-14 highway. Routes between the occupied south and Donetsk are under constant fire control.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov officially called this a logistics blockade. Kyiv is increasing funding for the most effective drone units and opening tenders for new procurements. As a result, analysts believe that even if Russia announces a mobilization, new reservists will most likely simply be unable to reach the front lines safely.
Volunteers shortage
Financial incentives for recruitment are having less and less effect. Putin signed a decree writing off debts of up to 10 million rubles for those who sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense after May 1 for a minimum of one year. But there are fewer people willing to fight.
The ISW reports that Moscow is already recruiting from new groups, specifically enlisting women and students into drone and air defense units to protect the rear.
Why Putin isn’t announcing mobilization
Compulsory conscription carries serious political risks for the Kremlin. Back in mid-2025, society was resigned to the war because the Russian army was making gains in some areas.
The picture is different now, according to ISW: there are no significant victories, the economy is under attack, and the losses are enormous. Under these conditions, mobilization could spark widespread discontent and pose a threat to the regime itself.
In Russia, the issuance of mobilization orders has surged sharply, a sign that voluntary recruitment is no longer sufficient.
The Office of the President of Ukraine does not rule out that Putin may announce mobilization after the State Duma elections. However, Ukrainian intelligence warns: a new wave of mobilization will only finish off Russia's economy.
