Ukraine's strikes send Russian gas prices soaring — ISW
Photo: Gas station in Russia (GettyImages)
In Russia, the rise in gasoline prices accelerated sharply in June. According to analysts, one of the key reasons was Ukrainian strikes on oil refining infrastructure and fuel logistics facilities, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Fuel prices rising
Since the beginning of summer, consumer prices for automotive fuel have risen significantly in Russia.
According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing data from the Russian news agency Interfax and the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat), the cost of gasoline increased by an average of 6.88% in June.
By comparison, the increase was 0.85% in May, 0.61% in April, 1.08% in March, 0.61% in February, and 1.35% in January.
According to published statistics, the price of AI-92 gasoline rose by 7.3% in June, AI-95 by 6.7%, AI-98 by 3.1%, and diesel fuel by 7.1%.
On an annual basis, from June 2025 to June 2026, gasoline prices rose by nearly 20%. Meanwhile, the increase for the entire year of 2024 was 11.13%, and for 2025, it was 10.78%.
What’s behind price spike
ISW believes that the sharp rise in fuel prices is directly linked to Ukraine’s campaign of long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries, as well as attacks on storage facilities and fuel supply routes to the occupied territories.
Analysts note that the situation coincided with a period of traditionally high seasonal demand, which further exacerbated the shortage.
According to the institute’s assessment, the gasoline shortage has already affected at least 78 of Russia’s 83 regions, as well as the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
The ISW believes that a further escalation of Ukrainian strikes could complicate the situation even more, as the Russian air defense system has so far been unable to effectively counter such attacks.
Analysts believe this could not only lead to further price increases for the civilian population but also negatively impact the supply of Russian troops in the rear and on the front lines.
The Russian military has begun using a new method of transporting fuel in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. According to available data, to conceal fuel deliveries, the Russians are hiding fuel tanks inside ordinary trucks in an attempt to make such shipments less conspicuous.
