Ukraine's path to 2026 World Cup: All qualification scenarios explained
After the defeat by France and a draw: how Ukraine can realistically qualify for the 2026 World Cup (photo: Ukrainian Association of Football)
The Ukrainian national football team, after losing to France and drawing with Azerbaijan in the qualification for the 2026 World Cup, has found itself in a difficult situation. However, chances for a direct spot or a playoff remain. We analyzed all possible scenarios that would allow the blue-yellow team to qualify for the World Cup.
Ukraine began the qualifiers with a home defeat to the reigning World Cup runners-up, France (0:2). This result was expected.
However, the draw with Azerbaijan, a team ranked 122nd in the FIFA rankings, was an unpleasant surprise that significantly complicated the tournament situation for Serhii Rebrov's team.
Currently, the situation in Group D after two rounds looks like this:
- France – 6 points
- Iceland – 3 points
- Ukraine – 1 point
- Azerbaijan – 1 point
What does Ukraine need to reach 2026 World Cup?
Direct qualification for 2026 World Cup
To secure a direct spot at the World Cup, Ukraine must finish first in the group. This is practically impossible, as France, with 6 points, is the clear favorite.
Let's be realistic. It is highly doubtful that Les Bleus will drop points against Azerbaijan. There is a chance that Didier Deschamps' side could draw with Iceland… but there's a catch.
Even if Ukraine wins all the remaining matches (including against France) and France draws with Iceland, Ukraine would not top the group, as France would earn 16 points while Ukraine would have 13.
Qualification through playoffs
The most realistic path for Ukraine is the second place in the group, which guarantees participation in the playoffs. To achieve this, they must win all the remaining matches.
However, even a loss in the return match against France would not be too damaging for Rebrov's side. Ukraine would still collect 10 points, enough for second place.
In short, the decisive games for Ukraine will be against Iceland. These matches will determine who competes for second place. Of course, this depends on not dropping points in the home match against Azerbaijan.
Even if Ukraine draws again with Azerbaijan and loses to France, but beats Iceland twice, it would still be the blue-yellows advancing to the playoffs (provided Iceland does not beat France).
But then the playoffs still have to be won...
Mykola Shaparenko (photo: Ukrainian Association of Football)
2026 World Cup qualifying playoffs: How it will work
At this stage, the last four World Cup spots will be contested among 16 teams, divided into four “paths” (A, B, C, D) with four teams each.
The teams will be divided into four pots. The first three pots will be formed by the teams that finish second in their qualifying groups.
They will be seeded according to the FIFA ranking as of November 2025. The fourth pot will consist of teams that qualified for the playoffs through the Nations League.
The playoffs will be played in a single-match semifinal and final format. In the semifinals, scheduled for March 26, 2026, teams from Pot 1 will host teams from Pot 4, while teams from Pot 2 will host teams from Pot 3.
The finals, which will determine the World Cup participants, will take place on March 31 of the same year.
Can Ukraine qualify for the 2026 World Cup through the Nations League?
99.9% no. The fourth playoff pot is formed by four teams that finished highest in their Nations League divisions in 2024/25 but failed to qualify for the World Cup.
If there are fewer than four such teams, they are replaced by the highest-ranked Nations League teams that did not qualify for the World Cup.
Currently, this ranking is led by the winners of League A groups (Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France).
They are followed by the winners of League B (England, Norway, Wales, Czech Republic), League C (Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland), and League D (Moldova, San Marino).
Ukraine is only in 16th place in this ranking, making its playoff qualification through the Nations League possible at just about 0.01%.
To reach the fourth pot, at least six teams ranked above Ukraine would need to finish first or second in their qualifying groups.
Ukrainian national football team (photo: Ukrainian Association of Football)
