Ukraine's Kursk operation poses risks to Russian offensive in Ukraine and Putin's regime, ISW
Illustrative photo (Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)
The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region and potential further Ukrainian invasions will force the Kremlin to reallocate resources to defend the state border, sacrificing the effectiveness of military actions in Ukraine, analyzes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Before the invasion of the Kursk region, Russian authorities considered their state border a "dormant front," which allowed them greater flexibility in accumulating and using resources in Ukraine. Now they will be forced to reconsider their stance, spending manpower and equipment on border defense. This could impose long-term limitations on operational planning that Russia has not previously encountered.
Russian president Vladimir Putin did not assess previous Ukrainian cross-border operations on Russian territory as posing medium- or long-term threats to Russian territory. "The current Ukrainian incursion, however, poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and Putin's regime stability and demands a response." ISW analysts believe.
Poorly equipped and staffed border fortifications proved insufficient to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ actions, and the Russian military command is likely to conclude that more resources need to be spent.
"This conclusion will narrow the flexibility Russia has enjoyed in committing manpower and materiel to its ongoing offensive efforts in Ukraine, and the Russian military command will have to consider the requirements for border defense when determining what resources it can allocate to future large-scale offensive and defensive efforts in Ukraine," the report states.
Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region
The invasion of Russian territory in the Kursk region began on August 6. Until yesterday, Ukrainian authorities had neither confirmed nor commented on the involvement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in these events. Yesterday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that Ukraine is bringing the war to Russian territory.
During the operation, Russia lost several settlements in the Kursk region, as well as many troops and equipment. The operation also dealt a serious blow to Putin’s authority, revealing his inability to protect Russian territory and its inhabitants.
