Ukraine's EU accession at delay risk amid new applicants — Politico
Photo: Ukraine's bid to join the EU could be sidelined by new candidates (Getty Images)
New, more attractive candidates could join the queue for EU membership, potentially pushing Ukraine aside. These are economically developed countries that meet most of the EU’s criteria, according to Politico.
As the agency notes, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid doubts about the reliability of the US, even wealthy countries such as Iceland and Norway have begun to reconsider the possibility of EU membership.
"EU membership has always offered stability and prosperity for European nations. Now we see that those outside of the EU are increasingly aware that, in a world of competing influences, a seat at the table in the EU also offers increased security and protection," says EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
According to sources, one of the key factors driving this shift has been the policies of US President Donald Trump following his return to the White House in 2025.
"It is not a good time to be out on your own now. Trump changes everything," a Norwegian official says.
In particular, Iceland may be the first to resume accession talks, as the country has accelerated preparations for a referendum.
New attractive candidates
At the same time, for current EU members, the accession of wealthier countries appears more attractive than expansion at the expense of poorer Eastern European states, including Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, and Montenegro.
"Those financial considerations mean it will be difficult to convince current members, all of whom would have to give their consent, that these poorer nations should be let in. The existing members would get an even smaller slice of EU funds," the article notes.
In addition to the economic factor, European governments are also weighing political risks.
"We don’t want another Hungary or Slovakia,” said one of the diplomats, who is close to the discussions on allowing new members into the bloc. “We don’t know what will happen in these new countries in 10, 15 years. And then we could be stuck with another [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán,” says one of the diplomats.
In contrast, countries with established democratic institutions, such as Norway and Iceland, have significantly better chances of rapid accession.
"Of course it would be easier for Iceland or Norway to join. They’re basically 80 percent there when it comes to enshrining EU law into their legal systems. If they want to join — and it is only up to them to decide if they do — it could be very quick," an EU representative tells the agency.
Trump changes everything
Trump has repeatedly questioned Washington’s willingness to come to the aid of its allies, and now countries that previously relied on NATO membership to ensure their security are seeking alternatives. Similar to NATO’s Article 5, the EU Treaty contains a clause on mutual defense—Article 42.7.
Norway applied for EU membership in 1992, but rejected it in a referendum two years later. Although a majority of Norwegians still do not support EU membership, the number of supporters has been growing over the past 18 months. Trump’s anger toward Norway over the decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize also appears to have contributed to this shift in public opinion.
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid the financial crisis, but froze negotiations in 2013 following a dispute over fishing policy and changing economic conditions. It withdrew its application in 2015.
Mutual defense
Icelanders and Norwegians may well decide against joining the EU, especially if the Trump administration tones down its bellicose rhetoric. Montenegro and Ukraine may well conclude their negotiations before Oslo or Reykjavik makes a decision.
Or the capitals that have blocked any EU expansion since Croatia’s accession in 2013 may continue to veto any new members.
"But squeezed between Trump’s America, Vladimir Putin’s Russia and China’s Xi Jinping, existing EU members could also decide that there is safety in numbers," Politico concludes.
Ukraine’s EU accession
Recently, Taras Kachka, Deputy Prime Minister for EU and NATO Integration, named the countries with which Ukraine could join the EU as early as this year in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
He also explained how many laws the country needed to pass to meet EU requirements and how individual EU member states assessed the progress of reforms.
In addition, Kachka commented on the US position regarding Ukraine’s rapid accession to the EU.
For more details on whether Ukraine has a chance to sign an EU accession treaty in 2027, read RBC-Ukraine’s interview with Taras Kachka.
