Ukraine could produce Patriot missiles, but there is one major challenge
Patriot air defense system (photo: Getty Images)
Ukraine could establish domestic production of missiles for Patriot air defense systems after obtaining the appropriate license. However, the main challenge will not be the technology itself, but the time required to launch a full production cycle, according to Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov (call sign Flash) and Bloomberg.
Flash explains whether Patriot production is possible in Ukraine
Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov (call sign Flash) is convinced that after obtaining a license, Ukraine will be able to organize the production of missiles for Patriot systems.
"Don't listen to the pessimists. Producing missiles for Patriot in Ukraine is possible," Flash said.
According to him, along with the license, all technological production process documentation is transferred, specialists are trained, supplier contacts are provided, and consultants are sent to help organize production.
Beskrestnov called the project timeline the main obstacle.
"The only problem is time. All of this could take a year or more. It is impossible to estimate the timeline even approximately because we do not know, for example, how long subcontractors will need to manufacture various components," the expert stressed.
What Bloomberg says
Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser believes that launching Patriot missile production in Ukraine will require significantly more time.
"A Patriot missile takes years to build, meaning Ukrainian production of these missiles won't materialize on the near-term timelines they need," Becca Wasser said.
According to her, Ukraine's success in rapidly scaling up the production of drones and other missiles does not mean similar progress can be achieved with Patriot missiles.
Wasser noted that US technologies are under strict control and existing production supply chains are already overloaded.
In addition, establishing a new production line will require specialized equipment and personnel training, which will further extend the production launch timeline.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that Washington would grant Ukraine the right to produce Patriot air defense systems. According to him, the US side will also transfer the necessary technologies to Ukrainian specialists and show them how to organize the production of these systems.
Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap suggested that this primarily concerns the possible localization of missile production for Patriot systems, rather than the launchers themselves.
In his assessment, creating the necessary production infrastructure could take at least a year, after which it would take about two more years to produce the first missile. Therefore, even under the most favorable scenario, production of such missiles could begin no earlier than 2029.
