Soon or years away? When Ukraine could produce its first domestic Patriot missiles
Photo: Ukraine might produce Patriot systems (Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump has announced that Ukraine will be granted the right to produce Patriot air defense systems.
RBC-Ukraine spoke with experts about the prospects for localizing the production of critical air defense components in Ukraine.
Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap told RBC-Ukraine that the announcement most likely refers to the production of Patriot missiles rather than the launchers themselves, as Ukraine already has launchers and Poland manufactures them.
According to him, even under an optimistic scenario, it would take at least one year to establish a production site, build the necessary facilities, conceal infrastructure, and begin installing equipment.
"In the best-case scenario, that takes a year. Then it takes another two years to produce the first missile. The production cycle for PAC-3 missiles lasts between 23 and 25 months. So, realistically, the earliest we could see the results is 2029," Kryvolap said.
He added that Ukraine is expected to receive the contracted PAC-3 missiles from the United States in 2027.
Aviation expert and defense industry development director Anatolii Khrapchynskyi told RBC-Ukraine that it remains unclear exactly what kind of production license Ukraine may receive and whether any manufacturing support will be provided.
"The Patriot missile production process involves many countries. There is a plant in Japan, final assembly takes place in Germany, while PAC-3 missiles are produced by Lockheed Martin in Arkansas. Various guidance components and other critical parts are manufactured by different companies. No single factory produces the entire system," he explained.
Khrapchynskyi also stressed that final assembly requires completely different production lines. In his view, the discussion is not about launchers or radar systems, but most likely only about the missiles.
"The positive sign is that Ukraine will most likely be allowed to manufacture part of the system. However, it has not yet been disclosed which stage of production would be localized or whether it would include final assembly," he added.
Where Patriot missiles are produced today
The production of Patriot missiles is a large-scale international industrial effort in which no single company manufactures the entire system.
The latest PAC-3 missiles are produced by the US company Lockheed Martin in Arkansas, while final assembly of the PAC-2 (GEM-T) variant takes place in Germany. Japan also operates licensed production lines.
At the same time, critical components such as precision guidance systems and onboard electronics are supplied by an extensive network of specialized subcontractors around the world.
What Ukraine's Defense Ministry says
Defense Minister's adviser Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov wrote on Telegram that he is confident Ukraine will be capable of producing Patriot missiles domestically.
"I have examined PAC missiles from the Patriot system after they were fired. I've seen how they are built and what they are made of, and I can confidently say that we will be able to establish their production under a US license," Beskrestnov said.
According to him, this is excellent news, but the key priority is to launch production of critical air defense components as quickly as possible.
Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that Kyiv is holding talks with international partners on obtaining licenses to manufacture Patriot anti-ballistic systems.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that strengthening Ukraine's air defense, including additional Patriot systems, will be one of the key topics during his meeting with Donald Trump at the summit in Türkiye.
