Russians to intensify offensive operations in Ukraine at the beginning of 2024

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby noted that Russian forces are expected to find it easier to conduct offensive operations, particularly around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, when low temperatures freeze the ground at the end of January and in February.

The ISW report highlights that since 2014, the autumn mud season has hindered ground maneuvers for both Ukrainian and Russian forces. In contrast, periods of prolonged frost, usually starting at the end of December, freeze the ground and allow armored vehicles to move more easily than in the fall and spring.

However, it is emphasized that the current weather in Ukraine is variable. In the case of a milder winter, the period of severe frost may occur later than expected or not occur at all. This would provide a shorter period for preparing the terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare.

"Russian forces have launched localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall–winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative rather than waiting for the hard freeze. Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify these offensive operations regardless of weather conditions this winter, as Russian forces did in winter 2022–2023," the ISW report states.

The situation on the front lines of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Despite pressure from the occupiers, Ukrainian forces maintain a presence on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. Over the past day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled 30 attempts by the aggressor to displace defenders from these positions.

In the Kupiansk direction, snipers of the Ukrainian Defense Forces detected enemy scouts and eliminated them.

The total number of losses for the Russian army since the beginning of the large-scale invasion has exceeded 350,000 individuals.