Russian losses reach 40,000 a month: Is Putin preparing new mobilization?
Photo: Putin is ready to mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops (Getty Images)
Russia's army is losing up to 40,000 personnel on the battlefield every month, with more than 60% of those losses reported to be fatalities. Contract recruitment is no longer sufficient to replace these losses, prompting discussions in the Kremlin about a new wave of mobilization, according to an RBC-Ukraine report.
Why Russia is running short of manpower
According to the outlet's sources, Russia's contract recruitment campaign is meeting nearly 100% of its targets. However, that is still not enough to form new military units or fully replace battlefield losses.
"Moscow's biggest shortfall is in recruitment for its unmanned systems forces: students and young people are offered service in UAV units as a supposedly safer and more prestigious option. However, there is still no flow of volunteers," the report said.
How many troops Russia could mobilize this fall
Sources in Ukraine's military and political circles say it is too early to state with certainty that the Kremlin will announce a new mobilization wave immediately after Russia's September elections.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin does take such a step, the new mobilization could involve between 100,000 and 300,000 people. It would take place in parallel with the ongoing recruitment of contract soldiers.
Why the mobilization would be spread over several months
According to the report, any new draft would most likely be carried out gradually rather than all at once, allowing the Kremlin to avoid a single-moment public shock.
A phased mobilization would also reduce pressure on Russia's training infrastructure. The country's military system is not capable of simultaneously receiving, equipping, and training hundreds of thousands of recruits. As a result, the impact of a new mobilization campaign would likely become visible only in winter or even next year.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Putin was preparing the conditions for a broader mobilization campaign.
According to Zelenskyy, Russia could seek to mobilize between 300,000 and 500,000 people in late September or early October, after the State Duma elections.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation reported that Russia's National Guard has, for the first time, added measures related to mobilization threats to its civil defense regulations.
The agency believes the move indicates preparations by Russian security forces to suppress potential protests following the announcement of a new draft.
