Russian army attempts new advance on Dnipropetrovsk region – ISW

According to analysts, Russian troops are making gradual progress from three tactical directions toward the village of Novopavlivka from the east, in an attempt to enter Dnipropetrovsk region.

Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances in the central part of the village of Orikhove (east of Novopavlivka), which was likely captured.

ISW earlier reported that Russian forces are conducting a multi-pronged offensive toward Dnipropetrovsk region, with attacks coming from the east, southeast, and south in the direction of Novopavlivka.

Analysts noted that the primary assault unit in this area is Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army. One Russian military blogger claimed that elements of the 80th Tank Regiment also recently advanced west of Kotliarivka, located east of Novopavlivka.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that units of the 74th and 137th Motorized Rifle Brigades (part of the 41st Army) are engaged in fighting near Kotliarivka and Muravka (northeast of Novopavlivka), while additional forces from the 74th Brigade are attacking Orikhove from the north.

Northeastern axis

ISW reminded that in March–April 2025, Russian forces intensified offensive operations southwest of Pokrovsk, between the villages of Solone and Bohdanivka, aiming to reach the administrative border between the regions.

Russian troops also recently seized territory in the far southeastern area near the Dnipropetrovsk region border, around the village of Dachne (southeast of Novopavlivka), in an effort to support attacks from the east of the settlement.

At the same time, Ukrainian Defense Forces are likely conducting counteroffensives in the area. Geolocated footage released on June 12 indicates a limited Ukrainian advance on the eastern outskirts of Oleksiivka (east of Novopavlivka).

Russian military bloggers credit the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Army) with capturing Novoukrainka (west of Oleksiivka) and advancing deeper into Dnipropetrovsk region.

ISW suggests that Russian forces are likely trying to push toward Novopavlivka from the southeast along the T-0428 highway (Kurakhove–Novopavlivka).

Southern axis

According to analysts, recent Russian gains near the village of Komar are likely part of a broader offensive toward Novopavlivka.

On June 14, military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that units of Russia’s 36th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) and the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet captured the village of Fedorivka, located south of Komar.

In addition, the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Army, Eastern Military District) reportedly advanced from Odradne and Bahatyr toward the village of Zaporizhzhia, all of which lie south of Novopavlivka.

Mashovets noted that Russian command had redeployed the 40th Marine Brigade from the Kursk direction back to the Komar area, indicating an effort to reinforce their strike group in this sector.

Russian sources attribute the capture of Komar to the 336th Marine Brigade of the Baltic Fleet and the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (part of the 36th Army), although one military blogger disputed the 37th Brigade’s involvement in the operation.

"Russian forces appear to be attempting to advance north into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward Novopavlivka and Ivanivka (southwest of Novopavlivka) along both sides of the Mokri Yaly River north of Velyka Novosilka," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded.

Red indicates currently occupied Ukrainian territory;
Yellow marks areas Russia claims to have occupied as of now.

Russian advance toward Dnipropetrovsk region

Following the capture of the city of Kurakhove in Donetsk region in December 2024, Russian forces have been slowly advancing westward over the past five and a half months, aiming for the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Earlier this week, Russian officials claimed that their troops had already entered the territory of Dnipropetrovsk region. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that these claims are false.

The head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, Serhii Lysak, also denied this information. He emphasized that such disinformation is intended to destabilize the situation.

An updated map by the DeepState analytical platform also shows that Russian troops have not yet reached the administrative border between the two regions.

Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that there is no active Russian advance toward Dnipropetrovsk region.