Russia unable to amass enough forces for breakthrough in Kursk region - ISW
Photo: The Russian army is deploying troops to the Kursk region only to replenish losses (Getty Images)
The size of the Russian military grouping in the Kursk region is not catastrophic, as these forces have been accumulated over a long period. No significant transfer of Russian units from the front in Ukraine has been reported, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW notes that recent assessments by Western and Ukrainian experts regarding the size of the Russian force in Kursk do not significantly exaggerate. The Russian military has been gathering forces for several months in preparation for a future counteroffensive and the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Russian territory.
Recently, Ukrainian officials and Western media reported that Russia has concentrated about 50,000 troops in the Kursk region, including approximately 8,000 to 10,000 North Korean soldiers. Moscow intends to use these forces to push Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory by the end of January 2025. Sources suggest that Russia has not transferred any of these forces from eastern Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian sources, in September and October 2024, Russian forces concentrated between 30,000 and 50,000 troops in the Kursk region. This included around 35,000 personnel from the Russian Northern Group of Forces, which had operated in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions and northern Kharkiv before Ukrainian forces entered the Kursk region in August 2024.
On November 11, a Ukrainian servicemember stated that Russian forces were also redeploying additional elements of the 104th Guards Airborne Division (76th Guards Air Assault Division) and several battalions of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) from the western part of Zaporizhzhia region to the Kursk region. However, ISW pointed out that, as of the report's writing, no independent evidence of these redeployments had been observed.
The ISW also mentioned that in mid-October 2024, there were reports of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment operating near Chasiv Yar.
"Ukraine's Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson, Colonel Vadym Mysnyk, reported on November 11 that the Russian military is frequently transferring new reserves to the Kursk region due to high personnel and equipment losses. These reserves are likely intended to replace personnel losses and not significantly bolster the existing Russian force grouping in the area," ISW stated.
Situation in the Kursk region
On August 6, Ukrainian Defense Forces crossed the Ukrainian-Kursk border and took control of dozens of settlements. Thousands of Russian soldiers were also captured.
Initially, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the recapture of the areas seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region by October 1. However, this objective was not achieved.
According to The Telegraph, Putin sent 50,000 soldiers to recapture the Kursk region. He aims to regain control by January 20, the day of Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president.
At the end of October, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated that 8,000 North Korean soldiers are currently part of the large Russian military presence in the Kursk region.
Meanwhile, according to Ukrainian sources, there are 11,000 North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.
