Russia's war against Ukraine could stretch to late 2026, ISW warns
Photo: Ukrainian soldiers on the front line (Getty Images)
The Kremlin plans to continue the war in Ukraine at least until the State Duma elections in September 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts drew attention to sources from a Kremlin insider, one of whom stated that the administration of Vladimir Putin held a seminar for vice governors working on domestic policy to identify key scenarios related to the upcoming State Duma elections in September 2026.
"The insider source claimed that election planning will focus on Russia’s progress in the full-scale invasion," ISW writes.
Insiders also report that Putin's administration has worked out three scenarios, all of which envisage the war continuing until the elections. They differed only in the degree of Russia's strategic success or the need to mobilise public support.
The most likely scenario is one in which the current dynamics of wartime continue without radical changes in the military or economic spheres.
"These insider claims suggest that the Kremlin is planning for the war to continue at a minimum until September, but likely for much longer," the report says.
Analysts believe that Moscow could present any potential peace settlement before September as a victory, so it is not currently spending resources on preparing for such a scenario.
Recently, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the Kremlin planned to recruit another 409,000 contract soldiers in 2026 and bring its forces in Ukraine to 800,000.
According to Syrskyi, over 700,000 Russian troops are currently fighting against the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
