Russia’s oil exports fall as domestic fuel crunch worsens under Ukraine's drone pressure

Scale of the reduction

Shipments of crude oil from Russia’s western ports – Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk – could drop from 2.5 million barrels per day in May to 1.7 million in June. This is partly explained by a decline in production itself.

Why exports are being cut

Russia plans to increase refinery runs by 250,000–400,000 barrels per day to meet rising seasonal fuel demand and address shortages in several regions.

To do this, previously exported crude is being redirected to refining.

Role of Ukrainian drones

Ukrainian drone strikes on port infrastructure, pipelines, and refineries since March have significantly reduced domestic refining capacity. These strikes are the main cause of the crisis.

In April, Russia was forced to cut production – the biggest drop in six years, since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic: 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day compared to the average level of previous months, and 500,000–600,000 barrels less than at the end of last year.

In May, production fell by an estimated further 100,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters sources.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged the production drop in early June, attributing it to unscheduled maintenance at refineries.

In May, Ukraine achieved a record hit on Russian oil refining – about a quarter of capacity was lost. The affected plants accounted for more than 30% of Russia’s gasoline production and about 25% of its diesel fuel production.

According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian drones can reach a quarter of Russia’s territory, where more than 70% of the population lives, with a strike range of up to 1,600 km.

The consequences are already being felt in occupied Crimea as well: due to regular strikes on oil depots, strict restrictions and gasoline coupons have been introduced. On June 7, defense forces struck two of the peninsula’s largest oil depots and an FSB facility.