Russia’s offensive stalls: Estonia weighs chances of a breakthrough in Ukraine
Russian offensive stalls (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
The Russian army is unable to break through in eastern Ukraine and is compensating for limited progress on the front by carrying out airstrikes on residential areas, states Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Commander of the Defense Forces Intelligence Center of Estonia.
“The Russian summer offensive, ongoing for two months mainly in eastern Ukraine, has essentially bogged down in fierce Ukrainian defense and turned into a tactical-level combat operation, where the Russians try to keep pushing forward despite heavy losses,” he noted.
Kiviselg emphasized that the intensity of Russian attacks on the front hasn’t increased this week. The Russian forces carry out roughly 150-160 attacks daily.
“Judging by the shelling, it remains clear that Russia’s main efforts are focused on the Pokrovsk district of the Donetsk region, where about half of the combat clashes are still taking place,” Kiviselg explained.
He also added that the Russian offensive in the Sumy region has been largely halted by Ukrainian defenders, despite Russia’s initial gains in that direction.
“As for future actions, the assessment remains the same: although Russia’s strategic goals and plans have not changed, despite their efforts, the Russian side is unable to achieve an operational breakthrough on any front, while the Ukrainian Defense Forces are capable of managing the pressure,” he concluded.
Kiviselg pointed out that Russia is increasingly attacking civilian infrastructure and residential areas simultaneously. Previously, such attacks were more episodic, but now they have become a regular pattern.
“This still indicates Russia’s willingness, when it fails to achieve the expected success on the front, to resort to direct terrorist tactics — targeting civilian objects to apply psychological pressure on the population,” he emphasized.
Russia’s offensive on the front
In May, The Washington Post, citing analysts, reported that Russia plans a major summer offensive targeting the eastern part of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which remains a top priority for President Vladimir Putin.
In early June, State Border Service of Ukraine spokesperson, Andrii Demchenko, said that the Russian forces continue attempts to advance deeper into the Sumy region. According to him, the enemy is using small infantry assault groups as a tactic.
Similarly, Russian forces are operating in the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian military assess that there are no signs of preparations for a full-scale offensive by the enemy.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is attempting a multi-directional advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, pushing forward from various angles.
