Putin's last chance: Russia launches massive offensive in Donetsk region - WP
Photo: Putin wants to seize Donetsk region (Getty Images)
This summer, Russia will launch a large-scale offensive in the eastern part of Ukraine's Donetsk region, which it has been trying to capture since the beginning of the war. This may become Vladimir Putin's last chance, the Washington Post (WP) reports.
According to the media outlet, some analysts believe the offensive has already begun.
Warnings about a new offensive come amid a stalled US - mediated peace process. Recent meetings have yielded few results, and Russia has rejected repeated calls from the US and Europe for an immediate ceasefire.
American analysts say that Vladimir Putin likely still believes he can win the war militarily, despite sanctions and heavy losses slowly eroding Russia's war machine. This summer could be Russia's last opportunity for a major push.
Donetsk region
Securing control over the Donetsk region has been a top priority for Putin ever since his failed attempt to seize Kyiv at the start of the war in 2022. In September of that year, he declared all of Donetsk, along with three other Ukrainian regions, part of Russia, despite not fully occupying any of them.
According to analysts, alongside the main offensive in Donetsk, around 70% of which Russia currently controls, the Kremlin also plans smaller-scale attacks along the border areas of northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv regions to increase pressure on Ukraine's already overstretched frontline forces.
Russia's plan is to "try to pin down Ukrainian forces along the frontline, including in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but otherwise, they will prioritize Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka," said Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, referring to two Donetsk cities that Russia has been trying to capture for nearly a year.
Bielieskov added that while Kostiantynivka is not yet close to being captured, it currently presents a "promising" target for the Russians, as they have the capability to attack it from three different directions.
Analysts last summer predicted both cities would fall by December. Russia's failure to capture them so far reflects Ukraine's massive effort to defend them. However, Ukraine continues to face challenges in recruitment and firepower, meaning the coming months will be yet another challenge.
Russia's military plans
Meanwhile, Russia is exceeding its troop recruitment goals, but still lacks the numbers needed for multiple successful offensives, according to analysts and Ukrainian military officials.
"I expect them to focus on the Donetsk region. Everything else will be diversion and dispersion of Ukrainian resources and attention," said Bielieskov, adding that prioritizing Sumy or Kharkiv would not give Russia the territorial gains it seeks.
Sumy and Kharkiv
It took Russia 80,000 troops to capture the small city of Avdiivka in Donetsk in February 2024, following a grueling siege. Currently, 125,000 Russian troops are positioned along the Sumy and Kharkiv regional borders - far too few to take two regional capitals, according to Ukraine's military intelligence.
These troops are likely to be used to seize sections of Ukrainian territory along the border, said Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andriy Chernyak. Russia has already stated it aims to create "buffer zones" along the border.
However, Chernyak added, Moscow's forces will use these new protrusions into Ukrainian territory to exert pressure on both cities, especially on Sumy. Russian forces have already seized four villages along the border, Sumy regional governor Oleh Hryhorov wrote on Facebook on Tuesday.
Ukraine's defense
Lacking the personnel and equipment for its own offensive, Ukraine will continue the defensive strategy it has employed since 2024 - holding the front line and making it as difficult as possible for Moscow’s forces to advance.
This strategy depends heavily on a constant supply of foreign weapons, something that is not guaranteed by the United States. However, Europe is seeking to increase its contribution.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that all restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons have been lifted.
Plans for Russia's summer 2025 offensive were also reported by sources in Western leadership. A US official told CNN that the expected offensive aims to seize more territory in eastern Ukraine.
Furthermore, Putin himself stated on May 22 that Russia plans to capture additional parts of Ukrainian territory along the border.
