Russia's new mobilization unlikely to shift war course, ISW says
Photo: Russian military (Getty Images)
Compulsory mobilization in Russia will not only fail to save the situation on the front lines but may further undermine the quality of Russian troops, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Personnel crisis and questionable effect of new mobilization
Analysts note that the impact of a possible new wave of forced conscription in Russia remains questionable due to the Russian army's growing personnel problems and difficulties in deploying troops to the front.
The ISW notes that Russia must not only compensate for significant battlefield losses but also recruit new personnel for unmanned systems units and to defend rear areas from attacks by Ukrainian drones.
Against this backdrop, the Kremlin is expanding its military recruitment campaigns to include new segments of the population. Specifically, this includes students and women who are being enlisted to work in air defense systems and drone units.
At the same time, the pace of contract recruitment in Russia continues to decline, despite an increase in one-time payments for signing a contract.
Training issues and declining combat readiness
Analysts emphasize that the Russian army is already facing serious problems in training personnel and drone operators. In the event of a large-scale mobilization, these difficulties could only intensify and negatively impact the troops' combat readiness.
An additional factor is Ukrainian drone strikes, which are actively hindering Russia’s ability to deploy personnel to the front lines, as well as to ensure supplies and hold positions on the front lines.
The Institute for the Study of War also points to the decline in effectiveness of Russia's elite Rubicon drone center.
It was these operators who, by the end of 2025, helped the Russian military achieve a series of advances on the front lines; however, problems with personnel training and system overload gradually eroded their combat effectiveness.
The ISW believes that the Kremlin is approaching the point where manpower shortages will become one of the main threats to the continuation of the war.
Mobilization in Russia
Yesterday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia was preparing an additional mobilization to compensate for the army’s heavy losses in the war against Ukraine.
According to a source at RBC-Ukraine, Russia is preparing a new mobilization of up to 300,000 people if the Kremlin decides to continue the war against Ukraine for another one or two years. However, a final decision has not yet been made.
The Office of the President of Ukraine also does not rule out that Vladimir Putin may announce a general mobilization in the country following the State Duma elections.
