Russia prepares new offensive against Ukraine – ISW
Photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces (Getty Images)
The situation on the front indicates that Russia is preparing for a new phase of the war, which could affect multiple directions simultaneously. Analysts note signs that the Kremlin is betting on a military-driven scenario, according to a publication by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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Russia plans to launch large-scale offensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine during the summer, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conclude after reviewing the actions of the Russian military command.
The report notes that to carry out these plans, the Kremlin intends to deploy strategic reserves, which have been forming since last year. At the same time, the very preparation for an offensive is seen as further confirmation of Moscow’s lack of genuine interest in ending the war.
Problems with reserves and resources
ISW experts emphasize that despite declared intentions, Russia faces serious limitations. Analysts estimate that existing reserves may be insufficient for full-scale preparation and achieving stated military objectives. The Russian military continues to struggle with replenishing regular personnel losses, reducing its capacity to conduct prolonged and intensive operations.
Possible directions of attacks
Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets previously stated that a new major offensive could start as early as late April 2026. He estimates that Russian forces may focus on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk or Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia directions. He also noted that in the coming months, the occupiers may try to secure advantageous positions before the active phase of the summer campaign.
Tactical deadlock
ISW’s report highlights that Russian forces are currently stuck at the level of tactical operations and have not achieved significant gains in the indicated directions. This casts doubt on Russia’s ability to carry out a large-scale offensive within the planned timeframe.
The report also notes that Russian troops have attempted to apply a tactical model used previously on the Pokrovske front during the planned assault on Kostiantynivka.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian defense forces have thwarted an attempt to break through near Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, capturing prisoners, evacuating civilians, and obtaining important intelligence.
