Russia plans Ukraine's Kostiantynivka assault following Pokrovsk scenario — ISW
Illustrative photo: Russia is preparing an offensive on Kostyantynivka according to the Pokrovsk scenario (Getty Images)
Russian troops are attempting to replicate the strategy they previously used successfully in Pokrovsk for their offensive on Kostyantynivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Read also Ukraine crushes enemy attack in Pokrovsk direction: 4 platoons destroyed
What Russia plans
According to the ISW, in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka area, the Russian army has intensified its air interception campaign, creating conditions for future offensive operations against Kostiantynivka, using the lessons learned during the Pokrovsk assault.
Analysts drew attention to a report by the commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostiantynivka direction.
According to him, Russian troops have recently been focusing their efforts not on direct assaults, but on cutting off Ukrainian logistics. This is partly due to sub-zero temperatures.
In particular, the Russians are monitoring Ukrainian ground communication lines, striking them and remotely mining routes using FPV drones and so-called sleeping drones.
They also set up drone ambushes and try to destroy Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGV).
Hunting for drone operators
As a result, Ukrainian forces are forced to make more active use of UGV to supply units in Kostyantynivka.
The commander reported that in January 2026, the use of such systems doubled, and the need for affordable UGVs remains critical.
In addition, Russian troops are prioritizing attacks on Ukrainian drone operators. To this end, they are using guided aerial bombs, Molniya-type drones, and other drones with position detection capabilities.
A spokesperson for another Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka area stated on January 8 that the flight range of Russian drones had increased significantly in 2025, making it much more difficult for Ukrainian troops to access the city.
"Russian forces are likely trying to replicate a new campaign design that Russia has successfully employed in Pokrovsk and later in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast," the ISW explains.
As a result, this allowed Russia to create gaps in the Ukrainian drone system and advance in these directions in the fall of 2025.
Situation in Kostiantynivka
Back in November, the Ukrainian military thwarted a Russian attempt to break through to Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region and its surroundings. During the fighting, Russia suffered losses and was forced to retreat.
In January 2026, on the outskirts of the city, border guards from the Phoenix unit hit a Russian Grad multiple launch rocket system and destroyed a Russian tank.
In addition, on February 1, analysts reported that both sides had made advances in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Geolocation videos from January 31 showed the successes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces north of Yablunivka, located southwest of Kostiantynivka.
At the same time, footage from January 28 indicated a slight advance by Russian troops in the southeast of the city.
