Russia may start total mobilization after presidential elections, Ukrainian top official warns

A Ukrainian official, speaking at the Halifax International Security Forum, notes that Russia has been able to adapt to the restrictive measures imposed by Western countries in response to the widespread military aggression against Ukraine. He highlighted that Russia is constantly investing funds into its defense sphere.

"Russia has proven to be more resilient to Western sanctions than expected. The country's economy is increasingly pivoting toward the military sector. Total mobilization could be possible after the 2024 presidential elections," stated Danilov.

The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine also points out that the upcoming presidential elections in Russia on March 17 next year will be a significant date for the Kremlin.

"After Putin's next inauguration, the regime will be cemented, essentially unleashing its power," he added.

Danilov emphasizes that Ukraine and the global community have 3-4 months to prepare accordingly in this context.

Mitigating the threat posed by Russia

According to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the actual future of Russia is "unclear," but in its current imperial form, it poses a threat not only to neighboring countries and Europe but also to the global order.

"We believe that the most effective way to prevent further aggression is through controlled decomposition of Russia into several parts. The disintegration of Russia will automatically lead to the dismantling of the Putin regime, Russia's desovereignization, as well as its denuclearization and demilitarization," explained the official.

However, Danilov adds that he couldn't foresee all the intricacies and processes of Russia's future fragmentation. This includes the plan to minimize nuclear risks and prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, refugee flows in the event of a civil war, and the political strategy of interaction with new territorial formations on the territory of present-day Russia.

"But answers to these questions and decisions must be found through joint efforts and in the very near future," he concluded.

Mobilization in Russia

According to the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russia is conducting a covert mobilization for war against Ukraine. Currently, the pace of mobilization exceeds 20,000 individuals per month.

Additionally, Secretary Danilov previously reported that Russia was attempting to recruit mercenaries from Central Asian countries for the war against Ukraine.

Moreover, Russian occupiers have intensified mobilization efforts in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In particular, in the seized Luhansk region, they are mobilizing miners and prisoners.

According to the representative of the Defense Intelligence Andrii Yusov, the decision to declare an official mobilization in Russia was previously on the table in the Kremlin but was postponed, notably to avoid alarming the electorate ahead of the presidential elections in spring 2024.