Russia may face shortage of air defense systems, limiting use of aviation on front lines - ISW

Before concluding, analysts recalled some of the recent incidents on the battlefield. Notably, Ukrainian forces struck seven Russian radars and air defense systems during the night of October 20-21 and had achievements on other days as well.

On November 2, a Russian Telegram user, claiming to be an employee of an unspecified Russian security service unit, reported that Ukrainian forces launched ATACMS missiles at a Russian S-300/400 air defense system near the occupied Mospyne (southeast of Donetsk). He added that sources are still assessing the damage inflicted on the system. According to him, Ukrainian troops targeted the air defense systems with six ATACMS missiles, three of which were reportedly intercepted by Russian forces.

Earlier, on October 31, the same Telegram user claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian radar station called Podlet near the occupied Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea using a drone on the 23rd. Moreover, he noted that the Russians have not yet evacuated the damaged station for repairs.

On the same day, October 31, a Ukrainian unit released footage that likely shows a successful Ukrainian strike on a Russian Buk missile system in the frontline area. The footage captured secondary detonations consistent with a successful strike on such a system.

On the 25th, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian forces hit a Russian Buk-M3 missile system and destroyed the radar system of another Buk-M2 missile system in occupied Luhansk during the night of October 24-25.

Official Ukrainian sources stated that the Armed Forces also targeted a Buk-M2 system in southern Ukraine on the 23rd, as well as a Buk-M3 system during the night of October 20-21 in an unspecified area along the frontline.

ISW conclusions

Previously, the Institute had observed signs that Russia was experiencing difficulties in supplying microelectronic components essential for the production of complex weapons and air defense systems, largely due to Western sanctions.

Analysts believe that if Ukraine destroys a significant number of Russian systems, Russia may not be able to produce or repair enough air defense systems to maintain the current density of air defense in the occupied Ukrainian territories.

As a result, further deterioration of Russia's air defense umbrella, particularly over occupied Ukraine, may affect how close Russian pilots are willing to operate to the front lines. Moreover, this could limit Russia's ability to effectively use glide bombs against both frontline areas and Ukrainian cities further inland.

As of the morning of November 2, Ukrainian Defense Forces reported that they had destroyed 944 units of Russian air defense assets since the onset of the full-scale war.