Russia may burn through its financial reserves by 2026, say Ukrainian intelligence

According to the report, if the current sanctions remain in place and the West tightens enforcement against circumvention of oil sanctions, Russia could lose the last remnants of its financial buffer by 2026.

Official data shows that in early July 2022, the liquid part of the fund amounted to $145 billion. A year later, this figure had nearly halved to $78 billion; as of May 1, 2025, only $39 billion remained. Thus, Russia's reserves have decreased roughly fourfold.

In addition, Ukraine's intelligence notes that if the average price of Brent crude oil drops to $64 per barrel in 2025 and to $60 in 2026, the Russian budget — which heavily relies on energy revenues — will come under severe fiscal pressure.

Intelligence officials also emphasized that the domestic economic situation is deteriorating: Rosatom’s projects for 2025 are underfunded by 80%, rail freight is declining, and the extractive, metallurgical, and construction sectors are experiencing a downturn. At the same time, several large companies have suspended dividend payments.

“Despite this, Moscow continues to project confidence in the stability of its economy. However, state propaganda cannot conceal the true scale of the crisis — Russia’s resource-based economic model is rapidly losing effectiveness,” the analysis concluded.

The price of Russian oil recently dropped below 4,000 rubles per barrel. According to Reuters, this is the lowest level in two years and 40% below the price assumed in Russia’s budget.

The Economist also reported that Russia’s economic growth has stalled. According to a high-frequency index compiled by Goldman Sachs, the country’s annual GDP growth rate has fallen from about 5% to zero.