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Russia launches counter-terrorist operation to downplay Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region - ISW

Russia launches counter-terrorist operation to downplay Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region - ISW Photo: Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)

The Kremlin has likely decided to declare a counter-terrorist operation (CTO) to downplay the scale of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, according to a report from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that the declaration of a counter-terrorist operation (CTO), rather than a state of war or martial law, has another purpose: to prevent internal panic or backlash.

Additionally, experts cite certain sources. Specifically, a source close to the Defense Committee of the Russian Federation Council, as reported by the Russian opposition outlet Verstka, stated that the Russian presidential administration recommended that Russian deputies and senators refrain from commenting on events in the Kursk region "until further notice." Alternatively, they were advised to keep discussions on the matter brief and to rely solely on official statements.

Meanwhile, Russian war correspondents have urged the Kremlin to officially declare war in Ukraine and have criticized the leadership for not imposing martial law instead of a counter-terrorist operation regime.

The report notes that declaring martial law would have allowed Russian authorities to take more radical measures, such as banning rallies and demonstrations, imposing curfews, and organizing the production of defense goods for the army.

However, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has refrained from officially declaring a state of war. He has repeatedly shown his reluctance to fully shift Russian society onto a war footing. Additionally, he has avoided declaring a general mobilization as part of broader efforts to prevent internal discontent that could threaten the stability of his regime.

It is worth noting that on the night of August 9-10, Russia introduced a counter-terrorist operation regime in three border regions with Ukraine: Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod. Russian authorities explained these measures as a response to an increased "threat" from Ukraine.

In a related evening address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine knows how to restore justice, and this is precisely what Ukrainian forces are doing by "pushing the war" onto Russian territory. This statement was made in the context of the events in the Kursk region.