Russia is trying to capitalize on US diesel deal, but there is catch, ISW says
Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russian authorities are trying to reassure the population following reports of a diesel deal with the US. Officials are assuring Russians that there will be no fuel shortages, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that following reports of a diesel deal between Washington and Moscow, Russian officials have been trying to reassure the public that the agreement will not cause domestic fuel shortages.
In particular, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Alexander Novak said on October 12 that exports of Russian diesel fuel to the US under the new agreement would not disrupt the domestic fuel market in Russia.
According to analysts, the statement was intended to ease Russians’ concerns about a potential future diesel shortage and the public discontent associated with it, following months of fuel shortages across Russia during the summer of 2026.
On October 13, Novak held a meeting with Russia’s Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Transport, and oil companies to discuss the situation on the Russian fuel market. He instructed the relevant agencies and fuel companies to step up additional measures to ensure adequate regional fuel supplies and respond to price fluctuations.
Russia has been suffering from severe fuel shortages in recent months, sparking public discontent across the country. The Kremlin is likely trying to preemptively allay concerns about the potential consequences of a fuel deal with the US.
However, ISW analysts suggested that Russia will likely prioritize fulfilling its diesel fuel agreement with the US over maintaining stability in its domestic fuel market, as the Kremlin hopes to use the deal to advance its interests in the war against Ukraine.
Russians also appear to understand this perfectly well. They are expressing their outrage over the Kremlin’s plans to sell diesel fuel to the US amid domestic shortages in videos that are increasingly appearing on social media.
US-Russia diesel deal
Recently, the US Treasury Department authorized the supply of Russian diesel fuel, lifting sanctions on it until April 7, 2027.
Russia will supply millions of tons of diesel fuel to the US and global markets. The US Treasury Department issued a temporary license allowing Russia to begin deliveries.
Russia expects to restore diesel fuel exports to 3–3.5 million tons per month by the end of the year. Moscow says this will allow it to return to pre-crisis levels and exceed previously announced figures.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump recently said that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries, rather than the war in the Middle East, were responsible for rising diesel fuel prices.
Over the past few weeks, Trump has repeatedly said that Ukraine should stop striking Russian infrastructure, claiming that such attacks are causing a global diesel shortage.
Ukraine considers the US diesel deal with Russia unfair and compares it to last year’s summit in Alaska. Ukraine would support easing sanctions on Russia only in exchange for an energy truce.
According to a source cited by RBC-Ukraine, Ukraine will continue striking Russian oil refineries unless the parties reach an agreement on an energy truce.
Trump’s attempt to lower fuel prices ahead of the elections through a diesel deal with Moscow plays into the Kremlin’s hands.
Russia is using the fuel crisis to provoke a conflict between the US and Ukraine and pressure Kyiv into halting strikes on Russian oil refineries.
